Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; staple foods among the top five imports; share of exports going to china and the united states; consumer price inflation; urban share of population; low real gdp per head; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Venezuela’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.85 | −0.99 | −1.21 | −0.53 | ▼ 5 | 28 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.76 | −0.98 | −1.17 | −0.52 | ▼ 4 | 30 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.9 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.59 | −0.79 | −0.88 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 27 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.7 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.64 | −0.76 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.55 | −0.72 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 25 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.3 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.61 | −0.68 | −0.83 | −0.37 | 0 | 25 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.76 | −0.66 | −0.77 | −0.34 | 0 | 18 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.8 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.61 | −0.65 | −0.81 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 26 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.68 | −0.60 | −0.74 | −0.32 | ▼ 2 | 26 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.9 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.42 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.40 | −0.29 | −0.35 | −0.15 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.3 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.20 | −0.21 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 13 | 12 | Energy Technologies 1.9 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.21 | −0.18 | −0.24 | −0.10 | ▲ 4 | 9 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.8 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.19 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 12 | 11 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 2.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −1.23 | −1.45 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.29 | −1.21 | −1.18 | −1.03 |
| Pandemic | −1.04 | −0.52 | −0.42 | −1.26 | −1.10 | −1.18 | −1.10 | −1.08 | −1.08 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.80 | −0.80 | −0.99 | −1.33 | −1.14 | −0.91 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.91 | −0.41 | −0.37 | · | −0.95 | −0.92 | −0.95 | −0.93 | −1.40 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.08 | −0.60 | −0.34 | −0.84 | −0.75 | −1.04 | −1.26 | −0.75 | −0.86 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.85 | −0.38 | −0.34 | −1.00 | −0.75 | −1.04 | −0.88 | −0.48 | −0.43 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.49 | · | −0.97 | −0.49 | −1.14 | −1.58 | −1.30 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.07 | −0.73 | −0.33 | −0.90 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.43 | −0.73 | −0.84 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.23 | −0.37 | −0.91 | −0.41 | −1.03 | −0.55 | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.79 | −0.22 | −0.28 | −0.35 | · | −0.70 | · | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.48 | −0.67 | −0.28 | −0.03 | · |
| Energy supply shock | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.27 | −0.33 | −0.31 | −0.28 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.32 | · | −0.33 | −0.31 | · | −0.12 | −0.12 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.23 | · | −0.12 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.27 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Venezuela is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +11.1 | 14.5 | 3.4 | 23 | 71 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 14.7 | 7.1 | 22 | 100 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 16 | 135 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −7.8 | 17.1 | 25.0 | 22 | 137 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −7.8 | 12.9 | 20.7 | 19 | 130 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.8 | 10.8 | 22.6 | 17 | 166 | Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.2 | 13.4 | 35.6 | 22 | 175 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −25.2 | 6.4 | 31.5 | 14 | 136 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −45.6 | 3.3 | 48.9 | 27 | 195 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −72.5 | 3.4 | 75.9 | 19 | 192 | Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception |