Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · COD

DR Congo

Baseline index 2.87Rank 175 of 197InceptionAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years46.8rank 18 of 197 · 3 years: 49.1
Worst case−29.5%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −27.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.5rank 133 of 197 · 3 years: −9.4
Best case+13Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed12%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.32expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of exports going to china and the united states; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; industry as a share of gdp; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; few months of imports covered by reserves.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in DR Congo’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.85
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.80
Energy supply shock S09−0.73
Pandemic S14−0.73
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.72
Global financial crisis S03−0.69
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.68
Mass displacement S08−0.66
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.64
Disaster in the core S10−0.60
Chokepoint closure S05−0.54
Food and water shock S11−0.54
AI diffusion shock S13−0.46
Hybrid campaign S06−0.25
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.66−0.85−0.96−0.42▼ 125Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.4 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.72−0.80−0.91−0.40▼ 320Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.67−0.73−0.85−0.38▲ 326Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.57−0.73−0.82−0.36022Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.1 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.61−0.72−0.79−0.36026Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.54−0.69−0.78−0.34▲ 119Labour & Employment 1.1 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.81−0.68−0.78−0.35▼ 215Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.6 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.86−0.66−0.76−0.33▼ 418Internal Security & Order 1.1 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.88−0.64−0.74−0.34▼ 320Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.64−0.60−0.70−0.31▲ 120National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.5 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.53−0.54−0.63−0.28▲ 318Maritime Power 0.1 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.47−0.54−0.62−0.27▲ 417Population Health 2.1 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.41−0.46−0.50−0.22▲ 414Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.27−0.25−0.28−0.12▼ 16Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Sovereign funding crisis−0.09−0.71−0.40−0.98−0.88−1.21−1.47−0.88−1.01
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.33−0.47−0.42·−1.10−1.06−1.10−1.08−1.62
Energy supply shock−0.10−1.03−0.39−0.43−0.43−0.97−1.15−1.11−0.99
Pandemic−0.36−0.42−0.34−1.01−0.88−0.94−0.88−0.86−0.86
Infrastructure collapse−0.31−1.15−0.41−0.41−0.41−1.03−0.96−0.94−0.82
Global financial crisis−0.17−0.36−0.32−0.71−0.71−0.89−1.18−1.02−0.81
Legitimacy crisis−0.22·−0.98−0.53−1.23−1.72−1.41··
Mass displacement·−0.67−0.50−1.36−1.12−1.54−0.65−0.08·
Single-supplier cut-off−0.40−0.39−0.51−0.62·−1.26·−1.28−1.28
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.25−0.37−0.93−0.42−1.04−0.56−0.42−0.42
Chokepoint closure−0.07−0.88−0.75·−0.40−0.85−0.34−0.68−0.87
Food and water shock−0.06−0.61−0.27−0.75−0.71−0.76−0.36−0.61−0.70
AI diffusion shock−0.23−0.28−0.25−0.74−0.56−0.76−0.65−0.36−0.32
Hybrid campaign−0.09−0.43−0.46·−0.47−0.44·−0.18−0.18

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what DR Congo is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+13.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+6.5
Sovereign debt reset S19+4.9
Yield revolution S22+3.4
Great-power détente S18+2.3
Middle East settlement S21−0.7
Energy abundance S16−1.5
100-day pandemic defence S24−6.4
Digital state leapfrog S23−15.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15−23.4
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+13.415.21.81751Technical & Vocational Skills 3 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+6.59.63.11254Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+4.99.04.11581Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+3.47.64.21272Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+2.310.48.21594Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−0.78.89.518144Internal Security & Order 3.3 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed−1.55.57.010138Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−6.45.912.312179Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−15.89.425.210176Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−23.42.325.76126Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception