Bangladesh · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years15.5rank 112 of 197 · 3 years: 15.1

Worst case−11.2%Energy supply shock · tail −10.3%

Opportunity · 10 years+2.4rank 77 of 197 · 3 years: +0.9

Best case+22Energy abundance · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed28%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.84expected index points from best practice

Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Bangladesh’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.76

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.67

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.66

AI diffusion shock S13−0.66

Pandemic S14−0.59

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.57

Chokepoint closure S05−0.56

Disaster in the core S10−0.45

Mass displacement S08−0.41

Food and water shock S11−0.40

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.38

Global financial crisis S03−0.35

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.29

Hybrid campaign S06−0.29

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.80	−0.76	−1.03	−0.45	▼ 1	24	Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.63	−0.67	−0.90	−0.40	▲ 2	24	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.61	−0.66	−0.88	−0.38	▼ 1	21	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.64	−0.66	−0.87	−0.38	0	20	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.53	−0.59	−0.82	−0.36	▲ 3	17	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.5 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.74	−0.57	−0.76	−0.33	▼ 3	18	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.67	−0.56	−0.80	−0.35	▼ 1	20	Economic Leverage & Dependence 4.9 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.61	−0.45	−0.66	−0.29	0	16	Energy Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational
Mass displacement S08	High 0.68	−0.41	−0.60	−0.26	▼ 3	16	Internal Security & Order 5.3 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.45	−0.40	−0.59	−0.26	0	14	Internal Security & Order 5.8 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.54	−0.38	−0.54	−0.24	▲ 1	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Low 0.32	−0.35	−0.47	−0.21	▲ 5	12	Labour & Employment 5.5 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.28	−0.29	−0.39	−0.17	▲ 5	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.6 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.36	−0.29	−0.40	−0.17	0	10	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.18	−1.06	−0.40	−0.44	−0.44	−0.99	−1.17	−1.13	−1.00
Infrastructure collapse	−0.83	−0.97	−0.35	−0.35	−0.35	−0.87	−0.81	−0.79	−0.69
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.07	−0.55	−0.31	−0.76	−0.69	−0.94	−1.14	−0.69	−0.78
AI diffusion shock	−0.84	−0.36	−0.33	−0.97	−0.73	−1.00	−0.85	−0.47	−0.41
Pandemic	−0.63	−0.31	−0.26	−0.76	−0.66	−0.71	−0.66	−0.65	−0.65
Legitimacy crisis	−0.42	·	−0.83	−0.42	−0.97	−1.35	−1.11	·	·
Chokepoint closure	−0.07	−0.92	−0.78	·	−0.41	−0.88	−0.35	−0.71	−0.91
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.92	−0.28	−0.68	−0.31	−0.77	−0.41	−0.31	−0.31
Mass displacement	·	−0.41	−0.31	−0.84	−0.69	−0.95	−0.40	−0.05	·
Food and water shock	−0.05	−0.45	−0.20	−0.55	−0.53	−0.56	−0.26	−0.45	−0.51
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.72	−0.19	−0.25	−0.31	·	−0.63	·	−0.64	−0.64
Global financial crisis	−0.18	−0.18	−0.16	−0.35	−0.35	−0.44	−0.59	−0.50	−0.40
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.37	−0.15	−0.14	·	−0.36	−0.34	−0.36	−0.35	−0.52
Hybrid campaign	−0.21	−0.47	−0.51	·	−0.52	−0.49	·	−0.20	−0.20

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Bangladesh is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+21.8

Middle East settlement S21+21.5

Emerging-market breakout S20+18.7

Yield revolution S22+14.1

Sovereign debt reset S19+9.8

100-day pandemic defence S24+9.3

Digital state leapfrog S23−1.2

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−5.7

Great-power détente S18−8.5

Superintelligence takeoff S15−26.6

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+21.8	22.1	0.3	28	50	Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+21.5	23.0	1.6	37	47	Internal Security & Order 6.7 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+18.7	27.1	8.4	36	28	Technical & Vocational Skills 6 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+14.1	17.2	3.0	34	20	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+9.8	12.8	3.0	34	33	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+9.3	15.4	6.1	33	89	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−1.2	17.5	18.7	25	81	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−5.7	18.4	24.1	33	108	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−8.5	9.3	17.8	37	156	Investment Attraction & Projection 7 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−26.6	9.1	35.7	19	145	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception