Panama · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years14.9rank 118 of 197 · 3 years: 14.7

Worst case−12.0%Infrastructure collapse · tail −11.3%

Opportunity · 10 years+0.1rank 82 of 197 · 3 years: +0.9

Best case+13Energy abundance · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed30%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.78expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Panama’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.86

Energy supply shock S09−0.79

Pandemic S14−0.77

AI diffusion shock S13−0.65

Global financial crisis S03−0.61

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.58

Chokepoint closure S05−0.57

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.48

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.46

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.40

Disaster in the core S10−0.32

Mass displacement S08−0.24

Food and water shock S11−0.21

Hybrid campaign S06−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.83	−0.86	−1.15	−0.52	0	14	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.84	−0.79	−1.07	−0.47	▼ 2	11	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.72	−0.77	−1.09	−0.49	0	14	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.7 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.69	−0.65	−0.91	−0.41	0	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.61	−0.61	−0.91	−0.40	▲ 1	9	Economic Output & Productivity 6.8 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.59	−0.58	−0.86	−0.37	▲ 2	7	Monetary & Currency Capability 5.5 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.65	−0.57	−0.76	−0.34	▼ 2	11	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.52	−0.48	−0.71	−0.32	▲ 1	8	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.68	−0.46	−0.69	−0.30	▲ 1	10	Force Generation & Mobilisation 3 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.57	−0.40	−0.55	−0.25	▲ 1	5	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.49	−0.32	−0.53	−0.23	▲ 1	7	Energy Infrastructure 7.2 · Foundational
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.44	−0.24	−0.39	−0.17	▲ 1	2	Internal Security & Order 8.5 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.27	−0.21	−0.35	−0.15	▲ 4	3	Resource Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.24	−0.20	−0.26	−0.11	▲ 2	4	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.88	−1.29	−0.46	−0.46	−0.46	−1.15	−1.07	−1.05	−0.92
Energy supply shock	−0.14	−1.12	−0.42	−0.46	−0.46	−1.05	−1.24	−1.20	−1.06
Pandemic	−0.74	−0.42	−0.34	−1.01	−0.88	−0.95	−0.88	−0.86	−0.86
AI diffusion shock	−0.72	−0.37	−0.33	−0.98	−0.73	−1.01	−0.86	−0.47	−0.42
Global financial crisis	−0.31	−0.31	−0.28	−0.62	−0.62	−0.77	−1.03	−0.88	−0.70
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.49	−0.27	−0.68	−0.61	−0.84	−1.01	−0.61	−0.70
Chokepoint closure	−0.07	−0.94	−0.79	·	−0.42	−0.91	−0.36	−0.73	−0.93
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.55	−0.26	−0.23	·	−0.61	−0.58	−0.61	−0.59	−0.89
Legitimacy crisis	−0.34	·	−0.68	−0.34	−0.79	−1.10	−0.91	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.68	−0.21	−0.27	−0.34	·	−0.68	·	−0.69	−0.69
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.67	−0.20	−0.50	−0.22	−0.56	−0.30	−0.22	−0.22
Mass displacement	·	−0.24	−0.18	−0.49	−0.40	−0.55	−0.24	−0.03	·
Food and water shock	−0.02	−0.24	−0.11	−0.29	−0.28	−0.30	−0.14	−0.24	−0.27
Hybrid campaign	−0.15	−0.33	−0.36	·	−0.37	−0.34	·	−0.14	−0.14

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Panama is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+12.5

100-day pandemic defence S24+12.5

Middle East settlement S21+8.3

Great-power détente S18+6.5

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.0

Sovereign debt reset S19+4.0

Digital state leapfrog S23+0.5

Yield revolution S22−9.4

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−11.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15−19.2

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+12.5	20.9	8.4	24	80	Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+12.5	17.9	5.4	28	78	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+8.3	17.4	9.1	42	89	Alliances & Security Cooperation 6.5 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+6.5	22.3	15.7	45	71	Export Capability & Sophistication 7.7 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+6.0	21.9	15.9	46	110	Technical & Vocational Skills 8 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+4.0	6.5	2.5	47	88	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8.5 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+0.5	13.5	13.0	27	74	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−9.4	7.3	16.8	30	144	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−11.3	13.8	25.1	30	133	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−19.2	10.0	29.1	19	94	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception