South Sudan · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years100.0rank 1 of 197 · 3 years: 100.0

Worst case−75.1%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −66.0%

Opportunity · 10 years−21.4rank 196 of 197 · 3 years: −23.0

Best case+7Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10

Shock absorbed5%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.29expected index points from best practice

Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; low real gdp per head; few months of imports covered by reserves; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; refugees hosted per head of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in South Sudan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.03

Global financial crisis S03−0.94

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.75

Mass displacement S08−0.74

Food and water shock S11−0.74

Pandemic S14−0.70

Disaster in the core S10−0.67

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.65

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.56

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.52

AI diffusion shock S13−0.48

Energy supply shock S09−0.44

Chokepoint closure S05−0.42

Hybrid campaign S06−0.22

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.95	−1.03	−1.05	−0.58	0	4	Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.88	−0.94	−0.96	−0.53	0	3	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.82	−0.75	−0.78	−0.43	0	3	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.99	−0.74	−0.78	−0.38	0	3	Foundational Education 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.62	−0.74	−0.79	−0.35	▲ 3	3	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.56	−0.70	−0.74	−0.34	0	2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.68	−0.67	−0.72	−0.32	0	2	Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.91	−0.65	−0.67	−0.37	0	3	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.92	−0.56	−0.59	−0.31	0	3	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.45	−0.52	−0.55	−0.25	0	2	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.43	−0.48	−0.50	−0.23	0	2	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	Medium 0.38	−0.44	−0.47	−0.21	▲ 3	3	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.40	−0.42	−0.45	−0.20	▲ 3	4	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.22	−0.23	−0.10	0	2	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.02	−0.96	−0.51	−1.42	−1.29	−1.60	−1.30	−1.03	−1.17
Global financial crisis	−0.04	−0.62	−0.47	−1.20	−1.22	−1.47	−1.24	−1.04	−1.12
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.04	−0.57	−0.44	·	−1.32	−1.12	−1.16	−0.97	−1.17
Mass displacement	·	−0.80	−0.51	−1.55	−1.29	−1.60	−0.79	−0.10	·
Food and water shock	−0.02	−0.87	−0.34	−1.06	−1.01	−1.08	−0.50	−0.80	−0.96
Pandemic	−0.04	−0.44	−0.31	−1.06	−0.88	−0.99	−0.93	−0.78	−0.90
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−1.34	−0.36	−1.05	−0.47	−1.18	−0.63	−0.47	−0.47
Legitimacy crisis	−0.04	·	−0.96	−0.64	−1.24	−1.68	−1.29	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.04	−0.45	−0.48	−0.71	·	−1.21	·	−1.01	−1.12
Infrastructure collapse	−0.04	−0.88	−0.29	−0.32	−0.32	−0.80	−0.70	−0.71	−0.64
AI diffusion shock	−0.04	−0.31	−0.25	−0.80	−0.62	−0.82	−0.73	−0.40	−0.36
Energy supply shock	−0.02	−0.63	−0.21	−0.26	−0.26	−0.60	−0.71	−0.68	−0.60
Chokepoint closure	−0.02	−0.71	−0.47	·	−0.32	−0.69	−0.28	−0.54	−0.70
Hybrid campaign	−0.03	−0.39	−0.36	·	−0.43	−0.41	·	−0.16	−0.16

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what South Sudan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.5

Sovereign debt reset S19+1.8

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−0.6

Yield revolution S22−1.9

Great-power détente S18−4.4

100-day pandemic defence S24−11.3

Digital state leapfrog S23−23.5

Superintelligence takeoff S15−43.3

Middle East settlement S21−49.9

Energy abundance S16−84.0

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+6.5	6.8	0.3	8	103	Industrial & Sectoral Base 1.3 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+1.8	6.4	4.6	7	121	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−0.6	3.5	4.1	4	91	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−1.9	2.8	4.7	4	111	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−4.4	4.6	9.0	6	134	Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Loser	−11.3	2.1	13.4	4	195	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Loser	−23.5	4.1	27.6	4	193	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−43.3	0.9	44.1	3	191	Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Loser	−49.9	3.1	53.0	9	196	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 1.5 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−84.0	0.8	84.8	4	197	Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception