Togo · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years30.0rank 57 of 197 · 3 years: 29.2

Worst case−25.4%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −24.4%

Opportunity · 10 years−3.4rank 105 of 197 · 3 years: −5.3

Best case+18Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed18%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.13expected index points from best practice

Breadth2 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; public debt relative to gdp; remittances relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Togo’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.03

Energy supply shock S09−1.00

Food and water shock S11−0.93

Global financial crisis S03−0.71

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.71

Chokepoint closure S05−0.68

Pandemic S14−0.63

AI diffusion shock S13−0.54

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.52

Mass displacement S08−0.46

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41

Disaster in the core S10−0.39

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.25

Hybrid campaign S06−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.89	−1.03	−1.28	−0.56	▼ 14	25	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.93	−1.00	−1.18	−0.52	▼ 8	24	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.91	−0.93	−1.19	−0.52	▼ 14	26	Resource Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.61	−0.71	−0.89	−0.39	▲ 1	19	Economic Output & Productivity 2.5 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.62	−0.71	−0.82	−0.37	▼ 2	15	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.68	−0.68	−0.80	−0.35	▼ 7	15	Maritime Power 0.3 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.51	−0.63	−0.74	−0.33	0	14	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.50	−0.54	−0.63	−0.28	▲ 1	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.65	−0.52	−0.64	−0.28	▼ 1	11	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.4 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.67	−0.46	−0.59	−0.26	▼ 10	15	Internal Security & Order 3.8 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.55	−0.41	−0.48	−0.22	0	6	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.46	−0.39	−0.50	−0.22	▲ 2	13	Energy Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.23	−0.25	−0.30	−0.13	▲ 6	8	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.20	−0.24	−0.10	▲ 1	6	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.08	−0.86	−0.48	−1.19	−1.08	−1.48	−1.79	−1.08	−1.23
Energy supply shock	−0.08	−1.43	−0.53	−0.59	−0.59	−1.34	−1.58	−1.53	−1.36
Food and water shock	−0.08	−1.06	−0.48	−1.30	−1.24	−1.33	−0.62	−1.06	−1.21
Global financial crisis	−0.21	−0.37	−0.33	−0.73	−0.73	−0.92	−1.22	−1.05	−0.84
Infrastructure collapse	−0.44	−1.11	−0.40	−0.40	−0.40	−0.99	−0.93	−0.91	−0.79
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.13	−0.93	·	−0.51	−1.08	−0.43	−0.87	−1.11
Pandemic	−0.37	−0.35	−0.29	−0.86	−0.75	−0.80	−0.75	−0.73	−0.73
AI diffusion shock	−0.40	−0.32	−0.29	−0.85	−0.64	−0.88	−0.74	−0.41	−0.36
Legitimacy crisis	−0.23	·	−0.79	−0.40	−0.93	−1.30	−1.07	·	·
Mass displacement	·	−0.47	−0.35	−0.96	−0.79	−1.08	−0.46	−0.06	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.39	−0.24	−0.31	−0.38	·	−0.78	·	−0.79	−0.79
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.82	−0.24	−0.60	−0.27	−0.68	−0.36	−0.27	−0.27
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.17	−0.14	−0.13	·	−0.33	−0.32	−0.33	−0.32	−0.49
Hybrid campaign	−0.09	−0.35	−0.37	·	−0.38	−0.36	·	−0.14	−0.14

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Togo is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+17.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+17.2

Yield revolution S22+9.8

Middle East settlement S21+1.1

Great-power détente S18−1.6

Energy abundance S16−2.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−4.3

100-day pandemic defence S24−5.1

Digital state leapfrog S23−8.1

Superintelligence takeoff S15−21.5

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+17.6	19.7	2.1	23	32	Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+17.2	20.6	3.5	27	6	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+9.8	13.5	3.8	14	31	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+1.1	14.1	12.9	24	133	Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−1.6	5.5	7.1	23	119	Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	−2.9	11.7	14.6	13	142	Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−4.3	10.1	14.3	14	105	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−5.1	6.0	11.1	13	169	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−8.1	13.9	22.0	15	131	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−21.5	3.6	25.1	9	113	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception