Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · LAO

Laos

Baseline index 3.71Rank 156 of 197NascentIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years38.7rank 33 of 197 · 3 years: 40.3
Worst case−27.9%Energy supply shock · tail −25.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.1rank 125 of 197 · 3 years: −6.5
Best case+15Middle East settlement · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed16%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.36expected index points from best practice
Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Laos’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.03
Chokepoint closure S05−0.93
Global financial crisis S03−0.91
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.88
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.79
Pandemic S14−0.77
AI diffusion shock S13−0.72
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.61
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.60
Food and water shock S11−0.51
Disaster in the core S10−0.47
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.44
Mass displacement S08−0.38
Hybrid campaign S06−0.34
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.97−1.03−1.22−0.54▼ 125Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.95−0.93−1.09−0.48▼ 419Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.74−0.91−1.07−0.47▼ 323Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.4 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.82−0.88−1.04−0.46▼ 721Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.65−0.79−0.94−0.41▼ 118Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.1 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.63−0.77−0.90−0.41▼ 218Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.67−0.72−0.83−0.37▼ 417Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.54−0.61−0.71−0.32▲ 714Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.83−0.60−0.71−0.33▼ 219Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.49−0.51−0.64−0.28▲ 611Resource Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.55−0.47−0.60−0.26▲ 19National Resilience & Crisis Management 3.7 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.52−0.44−0.51−0.22▲ 410Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.54−0.38−0.48−0.21010Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.39−0.34−0.40−0.18▼ 25Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.10−1.48−0.49−0.61−0.61−1.38−1.64−1.58−1.41
Chokepoint closure−0.10−1.57−1.09·−0.71−1.51−0.60−1.21−1.56
Global financial crisis−0.28−0.47−0.38−0.94−0.94−1.17−1.56−1.34−1.07
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.48−0.51−0.41·−1.20−1.16−1.20−1.17−1.76
Sovereign funding crisis−0.08−0.67−0.33−0.92−0.83−1.14−1.39−0.83−0.95
Pandemic−0.44−0.44−0.32−1.07−0.93−1.00−0.93−0.91−0.91
AI diffusion shock−0.45−0.43−0.34−1.15−0.86−1.18−1.00−0.55−0.49
Infrastructure collapse−0.39−0.96−0.31−0.34−0.34−0.86−0.80−0.78−0.69
Single-supplier cut-off−0.48−0.37−0.42−0.58·−1.18·−1.20−1.20
Food and water shock−0.06−0.58−0.23−0.71−0.68−0.73−0.34−0.58−0.67
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.99−0.26−0.73−0.33−0.82−0.44−0.33−0.33
Legitimacy crisis−0.22·−0.61−0.34−0.80−1.11−0.91··
Mass displacement·−0.39−0.26−0.79−0.65−0.89−0.38−0.05·
Hybrid campaign−0.17−0.59−0.54·−0.66−0.62·−0.25−0.25

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Laos is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+15.0
Energy abundance S16+12.2
100-day pandemic defence S24+3.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+3.5
Emerging-market breakout S20+3.2
Yield revolution S22−7.4
Digital state leapfrog S23−8.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−14.7
Great-power détente S18−15.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−23.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+15.017.01.92663Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+12.213.00.81381Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+3.87.53.713113Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+3.57.33.81894Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.7 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+3.215.412.223136Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−7.48.315.814134Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−8.57.716.212138Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−14.78.523.214152Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−15.514.329.921176Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−23.36.329.69125Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception