Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; little renewable water per head; internet users as a share of population; share of exports going to china and the united states; share of population aged 65 and over; urban share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Taiwan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 1.00 | −0.67 | −1.30 | −0.56 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Resource Infrastructure 8.4 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.87 | −0.63 | −1.24 | −0.53 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.7 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.96 | −0.63 | −1.15 | −0.50 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 7.7 · Foundational |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.86 | −0.61 | −1.35 | −0.57 | 0 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.95 | −0.58 | −1.31 | −0.54 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 11.1 · Transitional |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.76 | −0.49 | −1.10 | −0.47 | 0 | 21 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 11.8 · Transitional |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.71 | −0.47 | −1.06 | −0.45 | 0 | 13 | Labour & Employment 12.6 · Established |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.92 | −0.42 | −0.94 | −0.38 | 0 | 14 | Resource Infrastructure 9.4 · Transitional |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.86 | −0.39 | −0.94 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 12.4 · Established |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.38 | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.24 | 0 | 8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.5 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.43 | −0.25 | −0.57 | −0.24 | 0 | 8 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.4 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.38 | −0.21 | −0.42 | −0.18 | 0 | 7 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 7.9 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.38 | −0.18 | −0.40 | −0.17 | 0 | 6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.8 · Established |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.09 | 0 | 5 | Labour & Employment 13.4 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.16 | −0.93 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.87 | −1.03 | −1.00 | −0.89 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.80 | −0.34 | −0.34 | · | −0.78 | −0.75 | −0.78 | −0.77 | −1.15 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.02 | −0.94 | · | −0.46 | −0.98 | −0.39 | −0.78 | −1.01 |
| Pandemic | −0.64 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.78 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.75 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.84 | −0.63 | −0.86 | −0.73 | −0.40 | −0.36 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.61 | −0.71 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.64 | −0.60 | −0.58 | −0.51 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −0.59 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.54 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.80 | −0.21 | −0.31 | −0.34 | · | −0.69 | · | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.79 | −0.26 | −0.59 | −0.26 | −0.66 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.36 | −0.43 | −0.26 | −0.30 |
| Food and water shock | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.33 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.16 | −0.34 | −0.40 | · | −0.38 | −0.36 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.13 | · | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.42 | −0.35 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Taiwan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +61.3 | 61.5 | 0.2 | 64 | 7 | Energy Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +55.4 | 56.6 | 1.2 | 70 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +51.6 | 62.5 | 10.9 | 69 | 5 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +29.3 | 29.9 | 0.6 | 50 | 26 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +22.7 | 27.1 | 4.4 | 72 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +22.2 | 27.4 | 5.2 | 76 | 3 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.8 · Established |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Gainer | +13.5 | 17.9 | 4.3 | 71 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +13.2 | 30.7 | 17.5 | 71 | 29 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +13.2 | 38.5 | 25.3 | 53 | 50 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 75 | 70 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14.5 · Established |