Ethiopia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years20.2rank 92 of 197 · 3 years: 20.5

Worst case−17.3%Energy supply shock · tail −14.5%

Opportunity · 10 years+4.4rank 69 of 197 · 3 years: +2.4

Best case+24Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 6 of 10

Shock absorbed22%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.00expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; consumer price inflation; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; few months of imports covered by reserves.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Ethiopia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.98

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.77

Food and water shock S11−0.73

Chokepoint closure S05−0.62

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.59

Mass displacement S08−0.59

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.55

Disaster in the core S10−0.54

Global financial crisis S03−0.48

Pandemic S14−0.48

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.46

AI diffusion shock S13−0.42

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.32

Hybrid campaign S06−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.96	−0.98	−1.22	−0.54	▼ 6	32	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.68	−0.77	−0.98	−0.43	▼ 2	26	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.74	−0.73	−0.98	−0.43	▼ 4	29	Resource Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.66	−0.62	−0.77	−0.34	0	23	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.75	−0.59	−0.76	−0.33	▼ 4	21	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.9 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	High 0.90	−0.59	−0.79	−0.35	▼ 4	21	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.7 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.48	−0.55	−0.70	−0.30	▲ 7	20	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.67	−0.54	−0.73	−0.32	▼ 1	25	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4.7 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.41	−0.48	−0.60	−0.26	▲ 3	18	Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3.7 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.40	−0.48	−0.62	−0.27	▲ 5	21	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.7 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.60	−0.46	−0.60	−0.27	▼ 2	15	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.38	−0.42	−0.52	−0.23	▲ 5	18	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.30	−0.32	−0.42	−0.18	▲ 3	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.25	−0.20	−0.27	−0.12	▲ 3	9	Maritime Power 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.20	−1.38	−0.51	−0.57	−0.57	−1.29	−1.53	−1.48	−1.31
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.08	−0.64	−0.36	−0.89	−0.80	−1.10	−1.33	−0.80	−0.91
Food and water shock	−0.08	−0.83	−0.37	−1.01	−0.96	−1.03	−0.48	−0.83	−0.95
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.03	−0.77	·	−0.46	−0.99	−0.40	−0.80	−1.02
Legitimacy crisis	−0.44	·	−0.84	−0.44	−1.02	−1.43	−1.17	·	·
Mass displacement	·	−0.60	−0.45	−1.22	−1.00	−1.37	−0.58	−0.07	·
Infrastructure collapse	−0.68	−0.80	−0.28	−0.28	−0.28	−0.71	−0.66	−0.65	−0.57
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.12	−0.34	−0.83	−0.37	−0.93	−0.50	−0.37	−0.37
Global financial crisis	−0.24	−0.24	−0.22	−0.48	−0.48	−0.60	−0.80	−0.69	−0.55
Pandemic	−0.51	−0.26	−0.21	−0.62	−0.54	−0.58	−0.54	−0.53	−0.53
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.85	−0.24	−0.31	−0.39	·	−0.78	·	−0.80	−0.80
AI diffusion shock	−0.55	−0.23	−0.21	−0.62	−0.46	−0.64	−0.54	−0.30	−0.26
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.40	−0.17	−0.15	·	−0.39	−0.38	−0.39	−0.38	−0.58
Hybrid campaign	−0.15	−0.33	−0.35	·	−0.37	−0.34	·	−0.14	−0.14

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Ethiopia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+24.4

Energy abundance S16+16.8

Middle East settlement S21+16.4

Yield revolution S22+15.0

Sovereign debt reset S19+13.8

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+10.2

Great-power détente S18+4.3

Digital state leapfrog S23−1.4

100-day pandemic defence S24−1.6

Superintelligence takeoff S15−16.4

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+24.4	27.3	2.9	32	6	Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+16.8	17.9	1.0	20	64	Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+16.4	21.6	5.2	34	60	Internal Security & Order 6 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+15.0	18.4	3.4	24	16	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+13.8	17.2	3.5	30	18	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+10.2	18.0	7.9	24	40	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+4.3	10.5	6.1	33	83	Export Capability & Sophistication 6 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−1.4	19.6	20.9	21	83	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−1.6	8.3	10.0	24	154	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−16.4	5.0	21.4	15	81	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception