Niger · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years34.1rank 41 of 197 · 3 years: 32.7

Worst case−33.3%Food and water shock · tail −28.0%

Opportunity · 10 years−6.0rank 123 of 197 · 3 years: −8.5

Best case+12Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 1 of 10

Shock absorbed14%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.01expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; refugees hosted per head of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Niger’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Food and water shock S11−1.02

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.88

Mass displacement S08−0.68

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.60

Global financial crisis S03−0.58

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.57

Energy supply shock S09−0.53

AI diffusion shock S13−0.50

Pandemic S14−0.47

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.38

Disaster in the core S10−0.37

Chokepoint closure S05−0.34

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.32

Hybrid campaign S06−0.23

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Food and water shock S11	High 0.94	−1.02	−1.22	−0.54	▼ 9	25	Population Health 1 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.73	−0.88	−1.04	−0.46	▼ 3	24	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.8 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.93	−0.68	−0.81	−0.36	▼ 7	20	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.7 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.72	−0.60	−0.70	−0.31	▼ 2	16	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.2 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.47	−0.58	−0.69	−0.30	▲ 5	15	Investment Attraction & Projection 1.1 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.48	−0.57	−0.64	−0.29	▲ 3	15	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	Medium 0.49	−0.53	−0.62	−0.28	▲ 6	14	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.43	−0.50	−0.54	−0.25	▲ 2	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.36	−0.47	−0.54	−0.24	▲ 5	11	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.49	−0.38	−0.44	−0.20	▲ 3	12	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.41	−0.37	−0.44	−0.19	▲ 3	14	Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	Low 0.34	−0.34	−0.39	−0.17	▲ 7	10	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.28	−0.32	−0.37	−0.16	▲ 4	10	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.25	−0.23	−0.27	−0.12	0	8	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Food and water shock	−0.08	−1.18	−0.47	−1.44	−1.37	−1.47	−0.69	−1.18	−1.34
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.08	−0.74	−0.37	−1.02	−0.92	−1.27	−1.54	−0.92	−1.05
Mass displacement	·	−0.69	−0.46	−1.41	−1.16	−1.59	−0.68	−0.08	·
Legitimacy crisis	−0.30	·	−0.80	−0.46	−1.08	−1.50	−1.23	·	·
Global financial crisis	−0.22	−0.30	−0.24	−0.60	−0.60	−0.75	−1.00	−0.85	−0.68
Infrastructure collapse	−0.38	−0.90	−0.29	−0.32	−0.32	−0.80	−0.75	−0.73	−0.64
Energy supply shock	−0.08	−0.76	−0.25	−0.32	−0.32	−0.71	−0.84	−0.81	−0.72
AI diffusion shock	−0.37	−0.29	−0.23	−0.78	−0.59	−0.81	−0.68	−0.38	−0.33
Pandemic	−0.35	−0.26	−0.19	−0.63	−0.55	−0.59	−0.55	−0.54	−0.54
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.43	−0.22	−0.25	−0.35	·	−0.71	·	−0.72	−0.72
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.77	−0.20	−0.57	−0.26	−0.64	−0.34	−0.26	−0.26
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−0.57	−0.39	·	−0.26	−0.55	−0.22	−0.44	−0.56
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.27	−0.18	−0.14	·	−0.42	−0.41	−0.42	−0.41	−0.62
Hybrid campaign	−0.14	−0.40	−0.36	·	−0.44	−0.41	·	−0.17	−0.17

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Niger is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+12.2

Sovereign debt reset S19+9.2

Yield revolution S22+7.1

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+5.5

Middle East settlement S21−1.2

Energy abundance S16−2.9

Great-power détente S18−3.6

100-day pandemic defence S24−8.5

Digital state leapfrog S23−13.1

Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.7

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+12.2	13.4	1.2	15	62	Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+9.2	13.1	3.8	21	36	Health System Capability 4 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+7.1	11.3	4.2	12	43	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+5.5	9.4	3.9	12	58	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	−1.2	7.9	9.1	19	147	Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	−2.9	3.9	6.8	10	143	Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−3.6	4.3	7.9	15	129	Export Capability & Sophistication 2.3 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−8.5	3.5	12.0	12	185	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Loser	−13.1	10.1	23.1	10	170	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−22.7	2.3	25.0	7	124	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception