Greece · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years10.1rank 149 of 197 · 3 years: 9.9

Worst case−7.6%Pandemic · tail −7.0%

Opportunity · 10 years+8.3rank 50 of 197 · 3 years: +8.7

Best case+35100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed42%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.54expected index points from best practice

Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: public debt relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Greece’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.80

Energy supply shock S09−0.73

AI diffusion shock S13−0.70

Global financial crisis S03−0.68

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.66

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.56

Chokepoint closure S05−0.51

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.47

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.37

Hybrid campaign S06−0.35

Disaster in the core S10−0.34

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.31

Mass displacement S08−0.25

Food and water shock S11−0.13

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Pandemic S14	High 0.86	−0.80	−1.33	−0.58	▼ 1	22	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.91	−0.73	−1.18	−0.51	▼ 1	23	Energy Technologies 3.7 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.83	−0.70	−1.14	−0.50	▼ 1	20	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.1 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.83	−0.68	−1.24	−0.54	▼ 1	18	Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 8.6 · Foundational
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.75	−0.66	−1.08	−0.47	0	21	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.2 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.68	−0.56	−0.98	−0.43	▼ 2	15	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.6 · Foundational
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.77	−0.51	−0.92	−0.40	0	15	Resource Infrastructure 8.7 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.56	−0.47	−0.79	−0.35	▲ 1	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.61	−0.37	−0.62	−0.27	0	10	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.6 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.53	−0.35	−0.58	−0.26	0	7	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.1 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.59	−0.34	−0.64	−0.28	0	10	Energy Infrastructure 9.2 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.51	−0.31	−0.53	−0.23	▲ 1	10	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.8 · Foundational
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.52	−0.25	−0.46	−0.20	▼ 1	9	Labour & Employment 10.5 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.19	−0.13	−0.26	−0.11	▲ 1	0	Resource Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Pandemic	−0.85	−0.43	−0.35	−1.04	−0.91	−0.97	−0.91	−0.89	−0.89
Energy supply shock	−0.17	−1.03	−0.38	−0.43	−0.43	−0.96	−1.14	−1.10	−0.98
AI diffusion shock	−0.92	−0.38	−0.34	−1.02	−0.76	−1.05	−0.89	−0.49	−0.44
Global financial crisis	−0.34	−0.34	−0.31	−0.69	−0.69	−0.86	−1.15	−0.98	−0.79
Infrastructure collapse	−0.82	−0.96	−0.34	−0.34	−0.34	−0.86	−0.80	−0.78	−0.69
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.47	−0.26	−0.65	−0.58	−0.80	−0.97	−0.58	−0.67
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−0.84	−0.71	·	−0.38	−0.81	−0.32	−0.64	−0.83
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.60	−0.25	−0.22	·	−0.58	−0.56	−0.58	−0.57	−0.86
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.72	−0.19	−0.25	−0.31	·	−0.62	·	−0.63	−0.63
Hybrid campaign	−0.26	−0.56	−0.61	·	−0.62	−0.59	·	−0.23	−0.23
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.71	−0.21	−0.53	−0.24	−0.59	−0.32	−0.24	−0.24
Legitimacy crisis	−0.23	·	−0.45	−0.23	−0.53	−0.73	−0.60	·	·
Mass displacement	·	−0.25	−0.19	−0.51	−0.42	−0.57	−0.24	−0.03	·
Food and water shock	−0.01	−0.15	−0.07	−0.18	−0.17	−0.19	−0.09	−0.15	−0.17

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Greece is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+34.6

Energy abundance S16+29.5

Middle East settlement S21+27.3

Great-power détente S18+15.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+2.6

Digital state leapfrog S23+2.5

Emerging-market breakout S20+1.0

Yield revolution S22−2.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15−3.7

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−12.8

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+34.6	36.8	2.2	46	34	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+29.5	39.8	10.2	40	37	Energy Technologies 5.4 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+27.3	33.8	6.5	57	32	Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+15.6	28.3	12.7	54	43	Export Capability & Sophistication 10 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+2.6	10.0	7.4	57	107	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 11 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+2.5	10.9	8.4	47	60	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+1.0	11.8	10.9	55	148	Technical & Vocational Skills 10 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−2.0	7.0	9.0	47	112	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	−3.7	23.0	26.7	34	51	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.7 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−12.8	23.0	35.7	47	145	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational