Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · NRU

Nauru

Baseline index 1.97Rank 191 of 197InceptionIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years73.5rank 3 of 197 · 3 years: 73.7
Worst case−50.5%Energy supply shock · tail −49.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−12.3rank 170 of 197 · 3 years: −11.9
Best case+6Middle East settlement · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed8%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.38expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; adult obesity rate; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; low life expectancy at birth; little renewable water per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Nauru’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.99
Global financial crisis S03−0.98
Pandemic S14−0.96
AI diffusion shock S13−0.92
Chokepoint closure S05−0.85
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.79
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.66
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.59
Disaster in the core S10−0.50
Food and water shock S11−0.50
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.41
Hybrid campaign S06−0.30
Mass displacement S08−0.28
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 1.00−0.99−1.05−0.53▼ 114Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.85−0.98−1.04−0.51▼ 211Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.82−0.96−1.05−0.49▼ 313Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.91−0.92−1.00−0.46▼ 412Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.97−0.85−0.90−0.45▼ 112Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.81−0.83−0.89−0.43▼ 212Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.63−0.79−0.86−0.39▲ 110Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.63−0.66−0.71−0.3405Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.94−0.59−0.63−0.32▼ 17Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.57−0.50−0.60−0.26▲ 210Energy Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.44−0.50−0.57−0.25▲ 49Resource Infrastructure 0.1 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.57−0.41−0.47−0.22▲ 38Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.36−0.30−0.32−0.1505Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.39−0.28−0.33−0.15▲ 27Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.04−1.28−0.30−0.68−0.69−1.54−1.70−1.20−1.49
Global financial crisis−0.08−0.55−0.28−1.12−1.14−1.47−1.75−1.28−1.17
Pandemic−0.08−0.57−0.27−1.43−1.13−1.39−1.29−1.19−1.25
AI diffusion shock−0.08−0.58−0.29−1.49−1.20−1.69−1.45−0.80−0.71
Chokepoint closure−0.04−1.36−0.31·−0.78−1.67−0.67−1.15−1.64
Infrastructure collapse−0.08−1.36−0.27−0.56−0.56−1.40−1.15−1.03−1.10
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.66−0.22−0.93−0.86−1.18−1.35−0.84−0.98
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.08−0.41−0.22·−1.01−0.98−1.01−0.87−1.33
Single-supplier cut-off−0.08−0.45−0.29−0.72·−1.42·−1.13−1.25
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.03−0.19−0.80−0.36−0.91−0.48−0.36−0.36
Food and water shock−0.04−0.58−0.16−0.72−0.69−0.74−0.34−0.59−0.67
Legitimacy crisis−0.07·−0.31−0.36−0.82−1.17−0.96··
Hybrid campaign−0.05−0.58−0.28·−0.68−0.64·−0.25−0.25
Mass displacement·−0.29−0.14−0.60−0.49−0.67−0.28−0.03·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Nauru is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+6.3
Energy abundance S16+5.1
100-day pandemic defence S24+1.5
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.6
Emerging-market breakout S20−4.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−11.3
Yield revolution S22−15.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−16.8
Great-power détente S18−29.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−36.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+6.38.42.114107Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+5.16.00.96115Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+1.55.54.07132Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+0.64.84.215131Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.3 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−4.26.510.710175Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−11.34.716.08160Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−15.62.217.86171Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−16.86.823.69158Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−29.53.533.07197Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−36.33.639.95179Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception