New Zealand · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years6.0rank 177 of 197 · 3 years: 5.9

Worst case−4.9%Infrastructure collapse · tail −4.5%

Opportunity · 10 years+21.4rank 21 of 197 · 3 years: +22.3

Best case+42100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 8 of 10

Shock absorbed52%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.21expected index points from best practice

Breadth4 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in New Zealand’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.62

AI diffusion shock S13−0.57

Pandemic S14−0.55

Energy supply shock S09−0.49

Chokepoint closure S05−0.43

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.41

Global financial crisis S03−0.39

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.32

Disaster in the core S10−0.32

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.30

Hybrid campaign S06−0.21

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.21

Food and water shock S11−0.13

Mass displacement S08−0.11

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.80	−0.62	−1.16	−0.50	▼ 1	20	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.9 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.86	−0.57	−1.18	−0.50	▼ 1	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.4 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.76	−0.55	−1.17	−0.49	0	23	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.1 · Transitional
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.69	−0.49	−0.89	−0.37	0	17	Energy Technologies 4.7 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.66	−0.43	−0.78	−0.34	0	17	Maritime Power 7.7 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.58	−0.41	−0.82	−0.35	0	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.60	−0.39	−0.89	−0.38	0	18	Economic Output & Productivity 11.7 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.52	−0.32	−0.75	−0.31	0	13	Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.72	−0.32	−0.79	−0.32	▼ 1	8	Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.56	−0.30	−0.57	−0.24	0	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.38	−0.21	−0.42	−0.18	0	10	Air Power 5.7 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.51	−0.21	−0.52	−0.20	0	13	Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.1 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.23	−0.13	−0.30	−0.13	0	6	Resource Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.30	−0.11	−0.26	−0.11	0	7	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13.2 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.78	−0.91	−0.32	−0.32	−0.32	−0.81	−0.75	−0.74	−0.65
AI diffusion shock	−0.74	−0.31	−0.28	−0.82	−0.62	−0.85	−0.72	−0.40	−0.35
Pandemic	−0.59	−0.29	−0.24	−0.71	−0.62	−0.67	−0.62	−0.61	−0.61
Energy supply shock	−0.11	−0.69	−0.26	−0.29	−0.29	−0.65	−0.77	−0.74	−0.66
Chokepoint closure	−0.05	−0.70	−0.60	·	−0.32	−0.68	−0.27	−0.54	−0.70
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.52	−0.22	−0.20	·	−0.51	−0.49	−0.51	−0.50	−0.75
Global financial crisis	−0.20	−0.20	−0.18	−0.40	−0.40	−0.49	−0.66	−0.57	−0.45
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.03	−0.27	−0.15	−0.37	−0.33	−0.46	−0.56	−0.33	−0.38
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.65	−0.20	−0.48	−0.22	−0.54	−0.29	−0.22	−0.22
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.59	−0.16	−0.20	−0.25	·	−0.51	·	−0.52	−0.52
Hybrid campaign	−0.16	−0.35	−0.37	·	−0.38	−0.36	·	−0.14	−0.14
Legitimacy crisis	−0.15	·	−0.31	−0.15	−0.36	−0.50	−0.41	·	·
Food and water shock	−0.01	−0.15	−0.07	−0.18	−0.17	−0.19	−0.09	−0.15	−0.17
Mass displacement	·	−0.11	−0.08	−0.22	−0.18	−0.25	−0.10	−0.01	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what New Zealand is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+41.9

Energy abundance S16+31.4

Middle East settlement S21+29.2

Great-power détente S18+21.8

Emerging-market breakout S20+19.6

Digital state leapfrog S23+18.8

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+17.8

Superintelligence takeoff S15+17.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+6.3

Yield revolution S22+6.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+41.9	43.1	1.3	62	24	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+31.4	31.7	0.3	46	32	Energy Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+29.2	29.9	0.7	63	27	Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+21.8	32.6	10.8	65	27	Export Capability & Sophistication 12.3 · Established
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+19.6	27.1	7.5	62	24	Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+18.8	22.2	3.4	59	8	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+17.8	31.2	13.5	63	19	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Gainer	+17.6	29.9	12.3	39	25	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+6.3	7.2	1.0	79	65	Financial Regulation & Integrity 15.3 · Advanced
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+6.3	12.9	6.6	61	50	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional