Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Latin America and Caribbean · BHS

Bahamas

Baseline index 5.17Rank 114 of 197NascentLatin America and CaribbeanAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years23.3rank 77 of 197 · 3 years: 21.7
Worst case−18.9%Infrastructure collapse · tail −17.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−7.8rank 142 of 197 · 3 years: −6.6
Best case+5Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed23%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.02expected index points from best practice
Breadth7 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate; urban share of population; services as a share of gdp; public debt relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Bahamas’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.98
Pandemic S14−0.85
Energy supply shock S09−0.81
Global financial crisis S03−0.77
AI diffusion shock S13−0.72
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.69
Chokepoint closure S05−0.63
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.60
Disaster in the core S10−0.52
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.44
Food and water shock S11−0.36
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.29
Hybrid campaign S06−0.23
Mass displacement S08−0.20
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.93−0.98−1.16−0.53▼ 823Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.77−0.85−1.08−0.48▼ 321Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.79−0.81−0.98−0.43▼ 217Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.77−0.77−1.10−0.49▼ 219Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3.6 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.77−0.72−0.93−0.42▼ 118Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.69−0.69−0.98−0.43▼ 221Energy Infrastructure 2.3 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.67−0.63−0.75−0.34▼ 114Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.58−0.60−0.73−0.33▼ 212Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.72−0.52−0.77−0.34▼ 317Energy Infrastructure 2.3 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.65−0.44−0.61−0.28▼ 312Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.3 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.39−0.36−0.51−0.22▼ 411Resource Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.40−0.29−0.34−0.15▲ 17Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.26−0.23−0.27−0.1205Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Low 0.34−0.20−0.30−0.13▲ 19Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.25−1.59−0.51−0.58−0.58−1.45−1.35−1.33−1.16
Pandemic−0.25−0.50−0.36−1.21−1.06−1.13−1.06−1.04−1.04
Energy supply shock−0.04−1.15−0.39−0.49−0.49−1.10−1.30−1.25−1.11
Global financial crisis−0.18−0.40−0.32−0.80−0.80−1.00−1.34−1.15−0.92
AI diffusion shock−0.25−0.45−0.36−1.19−0.89−1.23−1.04−0.57−0.51
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.58−0.29−0.81−0.73−1.00−1.21−0.73−0.83
Chokepoint closure−0.04−1.08−0.72·−0.48−1.04−0.41−0.83−1.07
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.24−0.36−0.29·−0.84−0.81−0.84−0.82−1.23
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.08−0.29−0.80−0.36−0.90−0.48−0.36−0.36
Legitimacy crisis−0.16·−0.60−0.34−0.80−1.11−0.91··
Food and water shock−0.04−0.41−0.16−0.50−0.48−0.51−0.24−0.41−0.47
Single-supplier cut-off−0.20−0.18−0.20−0.28·−0.57·−0.58−0.58
Hybrid campaign−0.10−0.40−0.38·−0.45−0.42·−0.17−0.17
Mass displacement·−0.21−0.14−0.42−0.34−0.47−0.20−0.02·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Bahamas is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+4.8
100-day pandemic defence S24+4.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+3.8
Middle East settlement S21−2.9
Energy abundance S16−4.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−5.2
Great-power détente S18−7.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−15.9
Yield revolution S22−18.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−27.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+4.812.07.228121Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+4.710.96.216108Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+3.86.72.94192Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−2.911.314.327153Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed−4.212.216.414145Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−5.29.114.320108Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−7.512.820.223155Export Capability & Sophistication 3.7 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−15.910.626.519154Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−18.23.922.116177Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−27.37.234.513150Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception