Namibia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years20.8rank 91 of 197 · 3 years: 22.1

Worst case−15.8%Energy supply shock · tail −14.1%

Opportunity · 10 years+4.6rank 67 of 197 · 3 years: +3.8

Best case+15Energy abundance · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed26%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.98expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; low life expectancy at birth; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; share of population aged under 15.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Namibia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.94

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83

Chokepoint closure S05−0.76

Pandemic S14−0.75

Global financial crisis S03−0.62

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.60

AI diffusion shock S13−0.60

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.58

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.56

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.51

Food and water shock S11−0.39

Disaster in the core S10−0.35

Mass displacement S08−0.26

Hybrid campaign S06−0.19

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.97	−0.94	−1.24	−0.55	▼ 5	19	Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.73	−0.83	−1.01	−0.46	▼ 4	15	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.81	−0.76	−0.96	−0.42	▼ 5	17	Maritime Power 0.8 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.66	−0.75	−0.99	−0.44	▼ 5	17	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.5 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.62	−0.62	−0.91	−0.40	▼ 3	15	Economic Output & Productivity 4.2 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.83	−0.60	−0.77	−0.35	▼ 5	10	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.59	−0.60	−0.78	−0.35	▼ 2	17	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.88	−0.58	−0.87	−0.39	▼ 5	10	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.55	−0.56	−0.73	−0.33	▼ 4	12	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.52	−0.51	−0.75	−0.33	▼ 3	15	Energy Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.44	−0.39	−0.58	−0.25	▼ 3	8	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.6 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.48	−0.35	−0.53	−0.23	▼ 2	5	Energy Infrastructure 4.7 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.44	−0.26	−0.39	−0.17	▼ 2	2	Labour & Employment 6.8 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.22	−0.19	−0.24	−0.10	▼ 1	4	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.22	−1.31	−0.49	−0.55	−0.55	−1.23	−1.46	−1.41	−1.25
Infrastructure collapse	−0.80	−1.25	−0.45	−0.45	−0.45	−1.11	−1.04	−1.02	−0.89
Chokepoint closure	−0.10	−1.24	−1.05	·	−0.56	−1.19	−0.48	−0.96	−1.23
Pandemic	−0.67	−0.41	−0.33	−0.99	−0.86	−0.93	−0.86	−0.85	−0.85
Global financial crisis	−0.29	−0.31	−0.28	−0.63	−0.63	−0.79	−1.05	−0.90	−0.72
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.84	−0.33	−0.43	−0.53	·	−1.07	·	−1.09	−1.09
AI diffusion shock	−0.62	−0.34	−0.31	−0.91	−0.68	−0.94	−0.79	−0.44	−0.39
Legitimacy crisis	−0.38	·	−0.86	−0.43	−1.00	−1.40	−1.15	·	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.55	−0.31	−0.28	·	−0.72	−0.70	−0.72	−0.71	−1.06
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.05	−0.42	−0.24	−0.59	−0.53	−0.73	−0.88	−0.53	−0.61
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.44	−0.20	−0.54	−0.52	−0.56	−0.26	−0.44	−0.51
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.73	−0.22	−0.54	−0.24	−0.61	−0.32	−0.24	−0.24
Mass displacement	·	−0.26	−0.20	−0.54	−0.44	−0.61	−0.26	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.15	−0.32	−0.34	·	−0.35	−0.33	·	−0.13	−0.13

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Namibia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+14.7

Emerging-market breakout S20+14.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+11.2

Middle East settlement S21+10.6

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+10.2

Yield revolution S22+8.8

Great-power détente S18+8.6

100-day pandemic defence S24+3.2

Digital state leapfrog S23+2.4

Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.4

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+14.7	19.9	5.2	22	75	Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+14.6	24.3	9.7	33	45	Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+11.2	13.8	2.7	43	27	Health System Capability 8 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+10.6	17.3	6.7	32	76	Alliances & Security Cooperation 5.5 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+10.2	18.7	8.5	23	39	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+8.8	12.1	3.3	23	36	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+8.6	14.6	6.0	30	63	Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+3.2	12.5	9.3	21	117	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+2.4	18.0	15.6	23	61	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−22.4	6.7	29.1	14	121	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception