Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · LUX

Luxembourg

Baseline index 10.79Rank 37 of 197TransitionalEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years9.9rank 150 of 197 · 3 years: 10.1
Worst case−7.4%Pandemic · tail −7.2%
Opportunity · 10 years+13.3rank 36 of 197 · 3 years: +14.1
Best case+36100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed43%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.54expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; urban share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; services as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Luxembourg’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.80
Energy supply shock S09−0.79
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.75
Chokepoint closure S05−0.73
AI diffusion shock S13−0.65
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.53
Global financial crisis S03−0.48
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.42
Hybrid campaign S06−0.38
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.26
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.25
Disaster in the core S10−0.23
Mass displacement S08−0.22
Food and water shock S11−0.16
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.93−0.80−1.43−0.62▼ 320Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09High 0.90−0.79−1.16−0.50▼ 318Resource Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.83−0.75−1.19−0.52▼ 321Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.6 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.86−0.73−0.99−0.43▼ 516Maritime Power 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.92−0.65−1.25−0.54▼ 118Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.70−0.53−0.97−0.43▼ 115Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.75−0.48−1.11−0.47014Economic Output & Productivity 10 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.66−0.42−0.66−0.29▼ 18Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.6 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.55−0.38−0.59−0.26▼ 311Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.41−0.26−0.59−0.25▲ 17Energy Infrastructure 7.6 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.51−0.25−0.51−0.22▲ 16Force Generation & Mobilisation 3.9 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.46−0.23−0.50−0.21▲ 17Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.55−0.22−0.48−0.2104Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12.8 · Established
Food and water shock S11Low 0.22−0.16−0.29−0.13▲ 14Resource Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.85−0.43−0.31−1.03−0.90−0.97−0.90−0.89−0.89
Energy supply shock−0.18−1.10−0.37−0.46−0.46−1.03−1.23−1.18−1.05
Infrastructure collapse−0.94−1.10−0.35−0.39−0.39−0.98−0.91−0.90−0.78
Chokepoint closure−0.10−1.24−0.86·−0.56−1.19−0.48−0.95−1.23
AI diffusion shock−0.85−0.35−0.28−0.95−0.71−0.98−0.83−0.46−0.41
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.68−0.28−0.23·−0.66−0.63−0.66−0.64−0.97
Global financial crisis−0.24−0.24−0.19−0.49−0.49−0.61−0.81−0.69−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off−0.81−0.22−0.25−0.35·−0.71·−0.72−0.72
Hybrid campaign−0.30−0.64−0.59·−0.72−0.67·−0.27−0.27
Sovereign funding crisis−0.03−0.22−0.11−0.30−0.27−0.38−0.46−0.27−0.31
Legitimacy crisis−0.18·−0.33−0.18−0.43−0.60−0.49··
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.47−0.13−0.35−0.16−0.39−0.21−0.16−0.16
Mass displacement·−0.22−0.15−0.45−0.37−0.51−0.22−0.03·
Food and water shock−0.02−0.18−0.07−0.22−0.21−0.22−0.10−0.18−0.20

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Luxembourg is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+36.1
Energy abundance S16+34.2
Middle East settlement S21+29.1
Great-power détente S18+25.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15+6.6
Digital state leapfrog S23+3.5
Emerging-market breakout S20+1.9
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+1.4
Sovereign debt reset S19−3.9
Yield revolution S22−4.0
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+36.137.71.74432Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+34.234.30.13429Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+29.129.80.75030Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+25.435.510.15820Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed+6.624.017.43335Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+3.59.15.55157Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+1.910.48.552145Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+1.419.317.94581Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−3.90.64.572181Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14 · Established
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−4.02.86.742121Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent