Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · FIN

Finland

Baseline index 14.52Rank 15 of 197EstablishedEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years6.2rank 174 of 197 · 3 years: 6.5
Worst case−3.9%Energy supply shock · tail −3.7%
Opportunity · 10 years+28.6rank 11 of 197 · 3 years: +29.7
Best case+59Energy abundance · gainer in 8 of 10
Shock absorbed57%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.15expected index points from best practice
Breadth8 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of population aged 65 and over; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; urban share of population; refugees hosted per head of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Finland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.56
Pandemic S14−0.56
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.47
Hybrid campaign S06−0.45
AI diffusion shock S13−0.45
Global financial crisis S03−0.44
Chokepoint closure S05−0.44
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.32
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.31
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.19
Mass displacement S08−0.17
Disaster in the core S10−0.14
Food and water shock S11−0.09
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.92−0.56−1.19−0.48▼ 115Resource Infrastructure 8.7 · Foundational
Pandemic S14High 0.85−0.56−1.32−0.52▼ 118Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.6 · Transitional
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.79−0.47−1.14−0.46018Sensing, Timing & Navigation 11.4 · Transitional
Hybrid campaign S06High 0.89−0.45−0.99−0.41▼ 117Maritime Power 9.3 · Transitional
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.83−0.45−1.14−0.42015Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5 · Foundational
Global financial crisis S03High 0.70−0.44−1.04−0.43▼ 113Economic Output & Productivity 12.1 · Established
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.75−0.44−0.89−0.37▼ 114Resource Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.58−0.37−0.82−0.35014Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.7 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.54−0.32−0.78−0.31▼ 112Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.3 · Established
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.66−0.31−0.67−0.28▼ 111Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.6 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.49−0.19−0.50−0.1805Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.1 · Established
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.54−0.17−0.48−0.1704Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.35−0.14−0.38−0.1409Transport Infrastructure 14.6 · Established
Food and water shock S11Low 0.16−0.09−0.21−0.0809Resource Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.13−0.78−0.29−0.33−0.33−0.73−0.87−0.84−0.75
Pandemic−0.59−0.30−0.24−0.72−0.63−0.68−0.63−0.62−0.62
Infrastructure collapse−0.59−0.69−0.25−0.25−0.25−0.62−0.57−0.56−0.49
Hybrid campaign−0.34−0.74−0.80·−0.82−0.77·−0.31−0.31
AI diffusion shock−0.59−0.24−0.22−0.65−0.49−0.67−0.57−0.31−0.28
Global financial crisis−0.22−0.22−0.20−0.45−0.45−0.56−0.74−0.64−0.51
Chokepoint closure−0.06−0.72−0.61·−0.32−0.69−0.28−0.55−0.71
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.47−0.20−0.18·−0.46−0.45−0.46−0.45−0.68
Sovereign funding crisis−0.03−0.27−0.15−0.37−0.34−0.46−0.56−0.34−0.39
Single-supplier cut-off−0.59−0.16−0.21−0.25·−0.51·−0.52−0.52
Legitimacy crisis−0.14·−0.28−0.14−0.32−0.45−0.37··
Mass displacement·−0.17−0.13−0.35−0.29−0.40−0.17−0.02·
Disaster in the core−0.01−0.28−0.08−0.21−0.09−0.24−0.13−0.09−0.09
Food and water shock−0.01−0.10−0.05−0.12−0.12−0.13−0.06−0.10−0.11

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Finland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+59.2
100-day pandemic defence S24+55.5
Middle East settlement S21+40.8
Great-power détente S18+34.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15+33.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+20.8
Digital state leapfrog S23+15.1
Emerging-market breakout S20+10.9
Yield revolution S22+3.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+3.0
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+59.263.44.2659Energy Technologies 10.6 · Transitional
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+55.556.61.07112Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+40.843.52.7749Alliances & Security Cooperation 14 · Established
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+34.640.56.07415Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Gainer+33.341.68.45915Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.5 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Gainer+20.832.912.17411Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13 · Established
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Gainer+15.117.52.48110Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 15.6 · Advanced
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+10.916.96.07673Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+3.17.64.57173Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13 · Established
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+3.06.43.48498Financial Regulation & Integrity 16.3 · Advanced