Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · VNM

Vietnam

Baseline index 9.68Rank 49 of 197TransitionalIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years10.7rank 145 of 197 · 3 years: 11.4
Worst case−8.2%Geoeconomic confrontation · tail −7.7%
Opportunity · 10 years+11.1rank 42 of 197 · 3 years: +12.0
Best case+28100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 5 of 10
Shock absorbed39%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.59expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 5 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp; share of exports going to china and the united states; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Vietnam’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.79
Global financial crisis S03−0.75
Pandemic S14−0.68
AI diffusion shock S13−0.60
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.58
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.54
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.52
Chokepoint closure S05−0.51
Energy supply shock S09−0.51
Disaster in the core S10−0.39
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.25
Food and water shock S11−0.24
Mass displacement S08−0.09
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.93−0.79−1.32−0.58▼ 622Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.1 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03High 0.79−0.75−1.18−0.52▼ 226Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.8 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.71−0.68−1.10−0.48021Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.9 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.70−0.60−0.97−0.42018Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.64−0.58−0.92−0.40▼ 215Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.94−0.54−0.95−0.41▼ 117Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.58−0.52−0.84−0.37019Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.7 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.73−0.51−0.87−0.38▼ 115Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8 · Foundational
Energy supply shock S09High 0.64−0.51−0.83−0.36014Energy Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10High 0.63−0.39−0.68−0.30▼ 115Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.47−0.36−0.48−0.21▼ 110Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.36−0.25−0.39−0.17▲ 113Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.5 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Low 0.32−0.24−0.42−0.18▼ 111Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 9.5 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08Low 0.18−0.09−0.16−0.0706Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Geoeconomic confrontation−1.01−0.42−0.38·−0.99−0.95−0.99−0.97−1.45
Global financial crisis−0.38−0.38−0.34−0.76−0.76−0.95−1.26−1.08−0.87
Pandemic−0.73−0.36−0.30−0.88−0.77−0.83−0.77−0.75−0.75
AI diffusion shock−0.79−0.33−0.30−0.88−0.66−0.91−0.77−0.42−0.38
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.49−0.27−0.68−0.61−0.84−1.01−0.61−0.70
Single-supplier cut-off−1.04−0.28−0.36−0.44·−0.90·−0.91−0.91
Infrastructure collapse−0.65−0.76−0.27−0.27−0.27−0.68−0.64−0.62−0.55
Chokepoint closure−0.06−0.84−0.71·−0.38−0.81−0.32−0.65−0.83
Energy supply shock−0.12−0.72−0.27−0.30−0.30−0.67−0.80−0.77−0.68
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.81−0.24−0.60−0.27−0.68−0.36−0.27−0.27
Legitimacy crisis−0.27·−0.53−0.27−0.62−0.86−0.71··
Hybrid campaign−0.18−0.40−0.43·−0.44−0.42·−0.17−0.17
Food and water shock−0.03−0.27−0.12−0.33−0.32−0.34−0.16−0.27−0.31
Mass displacement·−0.09−0.07−0.19−0.16−0.21−0.09−0.01·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Vietnam is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+27.7
Energy abundance S16+24.6
Middle East settlement S21+21.5
Emerging-market breakout S20+20.3
Sovereign debt reset S19+10.2
Great-power détente S18+9.7
Digital state leapfrog S23+9.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15+4.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S170.0
Yield revolution S22−6.0
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+27.730.02.34648Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+24.625.10.54444Energy Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+21.522.71.25346Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+20.331.711.45422Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Gainer+10.212.52.33829Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+9.744.634.85758Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.8 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+9.421.412.03930Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed+4.026.122.13639Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed0.021.521.54787Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−6.016.122.148127Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational