Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years54.5rank 12 of 197 · 3 years: 53.9
Worst case−48.4%Energy supply shock · tail −44.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−9.3rank 153 of 197 · 3 years: −12.3
Best case+9Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed9%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.14expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth; remittances relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Guinea-Bissau’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.00
Energy supply shock S09−1.00
Food and water shock S11−0.76
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.70
Chokepoint closure S05−0.69
Global financial crisis S03−0.68
Pandemic S14−0.60
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.56
AI diffusion shock S13−0.50
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.37
Disaster in the core S10−0.37
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.26
Mass displacement S08−0.25
Hybrid campaign S06−0.16
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.80 | −1.00 | −1.11 | −0.50 | ▼ 3 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −0.50 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.67 | −0.76 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 19 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.61 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.34 | 0 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.68 | −0.69 | −0.74 | −0.34 | 0 | 14 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.54 | −0.68 | −0.76 | −0.34 | 0 | 18 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.3 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.48 | −0.60 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.69 | −0.56 | −0.61 | −0.28 | ▼ 1 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.45 | −0.50 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.50 | −0.37 | −0.40 | −0.18 | 0 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.39 | −0.37 | −0.42 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.22 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.32 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.17 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.08 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.85 | −0.40 | −1.19 | −1.06 | −1.47 | −1.76 | −1.06 | −1.22 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.02 | −1.28 | −0.47 | −0.64 | −0.64 | −1.44 | −1.70 | −1.48 | −1.38 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.83 | −0.33 | −1.08 | −1.03 | −1.11 | −0.52 | −0.88 | −1.01 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.11 | −1.15 | −0.35 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.97 | −0.85 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −1.11 | −0.71 | · | −0.55 | −1.17 | −0.47 | −0.94 | −1.20 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.11 | −0.36 | −0.28 | −0.72 | −0.72 | −0.90 | −1.20 | −1.03 | −0.82 |
| Pandemic | −0.11 | −0.36 | −0.25 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.11 | · | −0.71 | −0.46 | −0.99 | −1.50 | −1.23 | · | · |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.11 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.83 | −0.63 | −0.86 | −0.73 | −0.40 | −0.36 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.38 | · | −0.78 | · | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.77 | −0.20 | −0.57 | −0.26 | −0.64 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.12 | · | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.52 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.51 | −0.42 | −0.58 | −0.24 | −0.03 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.05 | −0.28 | −0.26 | · | −0.31 | −0.29 | · | −0.12 | −0.12 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Guinea-Bissau is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+8.5
Sovereign debt reset S19+5.4
Energy abundance S16+3.9
Yield revolution S22+1.1
Middle East settlement S21+0.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−0.7
Great-power détente S18−6.1
100-day pandemic defence S24−10.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−18.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15−23.6
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +8.5 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 12 | 85 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +5.4 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 14 | 77 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2.5 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 6 | 119 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +1.1 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 7 | 91 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +0.5 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 13 | 138 | Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −0.7 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 7 | 92 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.1 | 2.4 | 8.5 | 10 | 146 | Export Capability & Sophistication 1.7 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Loser | −10.2 | 2.7 | 12.8 | 6 | 190 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −18.9 | 6.8 | 25.7 | 7 | 184 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −23.6 | 1.7 | 25.2 | 4 | 129 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |