Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years28.6rank 61 of 197 · 3 years: 28.3
Worst case−21.3%Global financial crisis · tail −19.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−11.1rank 162 of 197 · 3 years: −9.8
Best case+4Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed19%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.11expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; little renewable water per head; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Antigua & Barbuda’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Global financial crisis S03−0.93
Energy supply shock S09−0.84
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.82
Pandemic S14−0.74
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.72
Chokepoint closure S05−0.67
AI diffusion shock S13−0.66
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.56
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.53
Disaster in the core S10−0.43
Food and water shock S11−0.43
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.39
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
Mass displacement S08−0.20
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.85 | −0.93 | −1.20 | −0.53 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.81 | −0.84 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.75 | −0.82 | −1.06 | −0.47 | 0 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.65 | −0.74 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.67 | −0.72 | −0.84 | −0.38 | ▲ 2 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.71 | −0.67 | −0.77 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 11 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.69 | −0.66 | −0.82 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.53 | −0.56 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.79 | −0.53 | −0.71 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.6 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.57 | −0.43 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.44 | −0.43 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.54 | −0.39 | −0.44 | −0.20 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.10 | ▼ 2 | 5 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.33 | −0.20 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 3 | 4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.6 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis | −0.18 | −0.49 | −0.34 | −0.98 | −0.98 | −1.22 | −1.63 | −1.40 | −1.12 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.08 | −0.36 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.17 | −1.39 | −1.34 | −1.19 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.68 | −0.30 | −0.97 | −0.87 | −1.20 | −1.45 | −0.87 | −1.00 |
| Pandemic | −0.23 | −0.43 | −0.28 | −1.05 | −0.92 | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.23 | −1.17 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.98 | −0.85 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.07 | −0.66 | · | −0.54 | −1.16 | −0.46 | −0.92 | −1.19 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.23 | −0.41 | −0.29 | −1.10 | −0.82 | −1.13 | −0.96 | −0.53 | −0.47 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.22 | −0.34 | −0.24 | · | −0.79 | −0.76 | −0.79 | −0.78 | −1.16 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.17 | · | −0.63 | −0.43 | −1.00 | −1.39 | −1.14 | · | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.91 | −0.21 | −0.68 | −0.30 | −0.76 | −0.41 | −0.30 | −0.30 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.48 | −0.18 | −0.61 | −0.58 | −0.63 | −0.29 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.22 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.39 | · | −0.79 | · | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.08 | −0.37 | −0.31 | · | −0.42 | −0.39 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −0.49 | −0.21 | −0.03 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Antigua & Barbuda is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Sovereign debt reset S19+4.0
100-day pandemic defence S24+1.3
Emerging-market breakout S20−0.9
Middle East settlement S21−5.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−7.2
Energy abundance S16−7.4
Great-power détente S18−12.2
Yield revolution S22−19.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−24.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−27.9
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 34 | 89 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 14 | 134 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 24 | 158 | Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −5.9 | 9.9 | 15.7 | 24 | 161 | Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −7.2 | 8.3 | 15.5 | 17 | 125 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −7.4 | 10.5 | 17.9 | 12 | 148 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −12.2 | 8.9 | 21.2 | 19 | 167 | Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −19.4 | 3.6 | 23.0 | 14 | 183 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −24.3 | 7.3 | 31.6 | 17 | 181 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −27.9 | 5.6 | 33.6 | 11 | 151 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |