Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years11.3rank 140 of 197 · 3 years: 11.2
Worst case−10.1%Infrastructure collapse · tail −8.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−2.0rank 99 of 197 · 3 years: −3.1
Best case+17Great-power détente · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed35%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.59expected index points from best practice
Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; urban share of population; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Oman’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.81
Pandemic S14−0.67
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.62
AI diffusion shock S13−0.60
Global financial crisis S03−0.54
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.45
Food and water shock S11−0.45
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.41
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.39
Chokepoint closure S05−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.33
Mass displacement S08−0.28
Disaster in the core S10−0.27
Energy supply shock S09−0.16
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.80 | −0.81 | −1.14 | −0.51 | ▼ 1 | 27 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.64 | −0.67 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.69 | −0.62 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.65 | −0.60 | −0.88 | −0.39 | 0 | 21 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.58 | −0.54 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 21 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.2 · Nascent |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.48 | −0.45 | −0.70 | −0.30 | 0 | 17 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.4 · Nascent |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.60 | −0.45 | −0.79 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 19 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.52 | −0.41 | −0.53 | −0.23 | 0 | 15 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.64 | −0.39 | −0.64 | −0.28 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.50 | −0.36 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 6.2 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.43 | −0.33 | −0.48 | −0.21 | 0 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.56 | −0.28 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.4 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.43 | −0.27 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 6.8 · Foundational |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.19 | −0.16 | −0.24 | −0.11 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.97 | −1.18 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.97 | −0.85 |
| Pandemic | −0.71 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.81 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.74 | −0.34 | −0.30 | · | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.78 | −0.77 | −1.15 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.73 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.88 | −0.66 | −0.91 | −0.77 | −0.43 | −0.38 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.54 | −0.68 | −0.90 | −0.78 | −0.62 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.37 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.47 | −0.64 | −0.78 | −0.47 | −0.53 |
| Food and water shock | −0.05 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.63 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.30 | −0.51 | −0.59 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.30 | · | −0.61 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.99 | −0.81 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.72 | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.33 | · | −0.66 | · | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.60 | −0.51 | · | −0.27 | −0.58 | −0.23 | −0.46 | −0.59 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.58 | · | −0.59 | −0.55 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.48 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.03 | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.55 | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.46 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.18 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.21 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Oman is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Great-power détente S18+16.6
100-day pandemic defence S24+13.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+7.6
Yield revolution S22+5.6
Emerging-market breakout S20+2.6
Middle East settlement S21+0.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−5.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−9.0
Energy abundance S16−44.5
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +16.6 | 26.1 | 9.5 | 41 | 40 | Export Capability & Sophistication 7 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +13.8 | 18.6 | 4.9 | 29 | 74 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 16.7 | 9.1 | 31 | 51 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +5.6 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 31 | 53 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.6 | 21.2 | 18.5 | 44 | 140 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 29.3 | 28.4 | 45 | 135 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.2 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 37 | 140 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −5.5 | 13.0 | 18.5 | 30 | 110 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | −9.0 | 13.4 | 22.4 | 21 | 61 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −44.5 | 4.4 | 48.8 | 29 | 171 | Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception |