Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years5.5rank 180 of 197 · 3 years: 5.6
Worst case−5.3%Infrastructure collapse · tail −4.6%
Opportunity · 10 years+10.3rank 46 of 197 · 3 years: +8.8
Best case+32Great-power détente · gainer in 5 of 10
Shock absorbed49%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.20expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 5 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in United Arab Emirates’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.63
Pandemic S14−0.54
AI diffusion shock S13−0.47
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.43
Global financial crisis S03−0.40
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.35
Food and water shock S11−0.35
Chokepoint closure S05−0.34
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.26
Hybrid campaign S06−0.23
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.22
Disaster in the core S10−0.19
Mass displacement S08−0.17
Energy supply shock S09−0.13
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.82 | −0.63 | −1.18 | −0.51 | 0 | 22 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.5 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.64 | −0.54 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.69 | −0.47 | −0.94 | −0.41 | 0 | 19 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.3 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.62 | −0.43 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.6 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.57 | −0.40 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.5 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.69 | −0.35 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 1 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.57 | −0.35 | −0.75 | −0.32 | 0 | 15 | Population Health 11.5 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.54 | −0.34 | −0.64 | −0.28 | 0 | 13 | Maritime Power 8.4 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.37 | −0.26 | −0.38 | −0.16 | 0 | 10 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.6 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.39 | −0.23 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.5 · Nascent |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.30 | −0.22 | −0.43 | −0.19 | 0 | 9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.9 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.36 | −0.19 | −0.39 | −0.17 | 0 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.41 | −0.17 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.7 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.19 | −0.13 | −0.24 | −0.10 | ▲ 3 | 7 | Energy Technologies 7.7 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.79 | −0.92 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.82 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.66 |
| Pandemic | −0.57 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.69 | −0.60 | −0.65 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.62 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.69 | −0.52 | −0.71 | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.29 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.55 | −0.23 | −0.20 | · | −0.53 | −0.51 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.78 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.50 | −0.67 | −0.57 | −0.46 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.67 | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.29 | · | −0.58 | · | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.49 | −0.46 | −0.50 | −0.23 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −0.56 | −0.47 | · | −0.25 | −0.54 | −0.21 | −0.43 | −0.55 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.19 | · | −0.39 | −0.19 | −0.45 | −0.63 | −0.51 | · | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.17 | −0.37 | −0.40 | · | −0.41 | −0.38 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.31 | −0.38 | −0.23 | −0.26 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.32 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.13 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.02 | · |
| Energy supply shock | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.17 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what United Arab Emirates is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Great-power détente S18+31.5
100-day pandemic defence S24+29.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+24.6
Middle East settlement S21+22.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15+15.7
Yield revolution S22+9.1
Emerging-market breakout S20+1.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−2.7
Sovereign debt reset S19−7.5
Energy abundance S16−21.9
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +31.5 | 37.8 | 6.3 | 70 | 17 | Trade Policy & Market Access 13.3 · Established |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +29.4 | 32.6 | 3.1 | 51 | 44 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +24.6 | 25.9 | 1.3 | 52 | 6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +22.7 | 40.0 | 17.3 | 67 | 42 | Energy Infrastructure 12.4 · Established |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +15.7 | 31.3 | 15.6 | 40 | 27 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +9.1 | 10.9 | 1.8 | 53 | 34 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.9 | 17.3 | 15.4 | 59 | 144 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10 · Transitional |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −2.7 | 13.2 | 15.9 | 48 | 91 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.7 · Foundational |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −7.5 | 1.1 | 8.7 | 47 | 189 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.7 · Foundational |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −21.9 | 7.8 | 29.7 | 52 | 163 | Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational |