Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years41.0rank 27 of 197 · 3 years: 42.5
Worst case−34.4%Energy supply shock · tail −31.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−7.7rank 140 of 197 · 3 years: −7.2
Best case+10Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed13%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.16expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; low real gdp per head; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Solomon Islands’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−1.00
Chokepoint closure S05−0.86
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.85
Disaster in the core S10−0.68
Pandemic S14−0.66
Global financial crisis S03−0.65
AI diffusion shock S13−0.65
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.49
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.46
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.40
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.37
Food and water shock S11−0.29
Hybrid campaign S06−0.27
Mass displacement S08−0.18
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.93 | −1.00 | −1.11 | −0.50 | ▼ 3 | 20 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.91 | −0.86 | −0.95 | −0.45 | ▼ 5 | 12 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.80 | −0.85 | −0.95 | −0.43 | ▼ 5 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.80 | −0.68 | −0.85 | −0.37 | ▼ 4 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.55 | −0.66 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.55 | −0.65 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Economic Output & Productivity 1.1 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.62 | −0.65 | −0.73 | −0.33 | 0 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.43 | −0.49 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.63 | −0.46 | −0.51 | −0.23 | 0 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.34 | −0.40 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 7 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.50 | −0.37 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 7 | 3 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.5 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.27 | −0.29 | −0.35 | −0.15 | ▲ 9 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.13 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 5 | 3 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.32 | −0.42 | −0.62 | −0.62 | −1.39 | −1.64 | −1.58 | −1.39 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.41 | −0.71 | · | −0.70 | −1.50 | −0.60 | −1.20 | −1.53 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.13 | −0.51 | −0.37 | · | −1.22 | −1.19 | −1.23 | −1.21 | −1.79 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.39 | −0.34 | −1.07 | −0.48 | −1.21 | −0.64 | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Pandemic | −0.13 | −0.39 | −0.25 | −0.95 | −0.84 | −0.89 | −0.84 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.12 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.69 | −0.69 | −0.86 | −1.15 | −0.98 | −0.79 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.13 | −0.41 | −0.29 | −1.11 | −0.83 | −1.14 | −0.97 | −0.53 | −0.47 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.13 | −0.79 | −0.23 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.72 | −0.68 | −0.66 | −0.58 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.47 | · | −0.96 | · | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.47 | −0.42 | −0.58 | −0.70 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.11 | · | −0.47 | −0.30 | −0.70 | −0.97 | −0.80 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.03 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.41 | −0.39 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.08 | −0.48 | −0.41 | · | −0.54 | −0.51 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.02 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Solomon Islands is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+10.3
Middle East settlement S21+8.2
Energy abundance S16+7.1
100-day pandemic defence S24+0.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.7
Yield revolution S22−12.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−19.3
Great-power détente S18−22.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−26.3
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +10.3 | 12.3 | 2.0 | 16 | 77 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +8.2 | 10.2 | 2.0 | 17 | 90 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.1 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 8 | 108 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 10 | 138 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 24 | 142 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.3 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −6.7 | 7.8 | 14.5 | 10 | 121 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 4.3 | 16.6 | 9 | 159 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −19.3 | 5.9 | 25.2 | 11 | 168 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −22.2 | 9.0 | 31.2 | 13 | 186 | Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −26.3 | 3.9 | 30.3 | 6 | 143 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |