Botswana · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years19.0rank 95 of 197 · 3 years: 19.5

Worst case−15.5%Energy supply shock · tail −14.5%

Opportunity · 10 years+2.2rank 78 of 197 · 3 years: +1.6

Best case+16Energy abundance · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed27%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.92expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; youth unemployment rate; low life expectancy at birth; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Botswana’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.94

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.94

Pandemic S14−0.76

Chokepoint closure S05−0.69

AI diffusion shock S13−0.67

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.54

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.52

Global financial crisis S03−0.51

Food and water shock S11−0.43

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.42

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37

Disaster in the core S10−0.36

Hybrid campaign S06−0.21

Mass displacement S08−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.97	−0.94	−1.22	−0.54	▼ 4	25	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.85	−0.94	−1.14	−0.52	▼ 4	23	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.68	−0.76	−1.01	−0.45	▼ 1	19	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.74	−0.69	−0.85	−0.37	▼ 2	18	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.68	−0.67	−0.88	−0.39	▼ 1	15	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.83	−0.54	−0.82	−0.36	▼ 1	11	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.4 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.74	−0.52	−0.68	−0.31	▼ 1	15	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.53	−0.51	−0.79	−0.35	▲ 3	14	Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.48	−0.43	−0.62	−0.27	0	10	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.8 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.46	−0.42	−0.66	−0.29	0	8	Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.37	−0.37	−0.50	−0.22	▲ 3	6	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.52	−0.36	−0.56	−0.25	▲ 1	10	Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.24	−0.21	−0.26	−0.11	▲ 1	4	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.38	−0.21	−0.33	−0.14	0	3	Labour & Employment 7.3 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.12	−1.34	−0.45	−0.56	−0.56	−1.26	−1.49	−1.44	−1.28
Infrastructure collapse	−0.79	−1.45	−0.47	−0.52	−0.52	−1.30	−1.21	−1.18	−1.04
Pandemic	−0.68	−0.42	−0.30	−1.01	−0.88	−0.94	−0.88	−0.86	−0.86
Chokepoint closure	−0.09	−1.17	−0.81	·	−0.52	−1.12	−0.45	−0.90	−1.15
AI diffusion shock	−0.69	−0.38	−0.31	−1.02	−0.77	−1.05	−0.89	−0.49	−0.44
Legitimacy crisis	−0.37	·	−0.73	−0.41	−0.95	−1.32	−1.08	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.73	−0.29	−0.33	−0.46	·	−0.93	·	−0.95	−0.95
Global financial crisis	−0.25	−0.26	−0.21	−0.52	−0.52	−0.65	−0.87	−0.74	−0.59
Food and water shock	−0.05	−0.50	−0.20	−0.61	−0.58	−0.62	−0.29	−0.50	−0.57
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.35	−0.17	−0.49	−0.44	−0.60	−0.73	−0.44	−0.50
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.41	−0.20	−0.16	·	−0.48	−0.46	−0.48	−0.47	−0.70
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.75	−0.20	−0.56	−0.25	−0.63	−0.33	−0.25	−0.25
Hybrid campaign	−0.16	−0.35	−0.32	·	−0.39	−0.37	·	−0.15	−0.15
Mass displacement	·	−0.22	−0.14	−0.44	−0.36	−0.50	−0.21	−0.03	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Botswana is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+15.5

Middle East settlement S21+11.2

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.6

Yield revolution S22+7.0

Great-power détente S18+4.7

Emerging-market breakout S20+4.7

100-day pandemic defence S24+4.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+3.9

Digital state leapfrog S23+0.7

Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+15.5	16.3	0.9	18	69	Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+11.2	15.3	4.1	28	75	Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.6	10.1	2.4	48	51	Financial Regulation & Integrity 9.3 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+7.0	10.2	3.1	22	44	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+4.7	10.4	5.7	30	81	Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+4.7	18.4	13.7	28	122	Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+4.3	13.2	8.9	21	110	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+3.9	19.7	15.9	24	67	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+0.7	16.2	15.5	23	71	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−22.3	7.6	29.9	15	119	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception