Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Russia and Eurasia · UZB

Uzbekistan

Baseline index 5.92Rank 100 of 197NascentRussia and EurasiaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years14.5rank 121 of 197 · 3 years: 14.5
Worst case−12.2%Infrastructure collapse · tail −10.9%
Opportunity · 10 years−9.2rank 152 of 197 · 3 years: −10.0
Best case+6Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed25%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.70expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Legitimacy crisis, Hybrid campaign. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Uzbekistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.72
AI diffusion shock S13−0.64
Pandemic S14−0.56
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.49
Disaster in the core S10−0.49
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41
Food and water shock S11−0.40
Global financial crisis S03−0.39
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37
Hybrid campaign S06−0.36
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.31
Energy supply shock S09−0.31
Mass displacement S08−0.27
Chokepoint closure S05−0.26
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.65−0.72−0.92−0.41▲ 320Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.63−0.64−0.84−0.38021Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.48−0.56−0.74−0.32▲ 419Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.7 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.60−0.49−0.60−0.27016Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.5 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.66−0.49−0.71−0.31▼ 215Transport Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.59−0.41−0.57−0.26▲ 214Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.43−0.40−0.57−0.25▼ 113Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5.1 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.35−0.39−0.52−0.23▲ 615Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.2 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Low 0.34−0.37−0.48−0.21▲ 211Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.42−0.36−0.46−0.20▼ 29Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Low 0.28−0.31−0.41−0.18▲ 310Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.4 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09Low 0.34−0.31−0.44−0.19▲ 813Energy Technologies 2.7 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.45−0.27−0.40−0.1708Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.30−0.26−0.34−0.15▲ 510Maritime Power 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.84−1.07−0.37−0.38−0.38−0.95−0.89−0.87−0.76
AI diffusion shock−0.76−0.36−0.31−0.95−0.72−0.98−0.84−0.46−0.41
Pandemic−0.59−0.30−0.24−0.72−0.63−0.68−0.63−0.62−0.62
Legitimacy crisis−0.37·−0.69−0.37−0.86−1.19−0.98··
Disaster in the core−0.03−1.01−0.29−0.75−0.34−0.84−0.45−0.34−0.34
Single-supplier cut-off−0.74−0.22−0.28−0.35·−0.70·−0.72−0.72
Food and water shock−0.05−0.46−0.21−0.56−0.54−0.57−0.27−0.46−0.52
Global financial crisis−0.20−0.20−0.18−0.39−0.39−0.49−0.66−0.56−0.45
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.46−0.20−0.18·−0.46−0.44−0.46−0.45−0.67
Hybrid campaign−0.27−0.60−0.57·−0.67−0.62·−0.25−0.25
Sovereign funding crisis−0.03−0.26−0.14−0.36−0.32−0.44−0.53−0.32−0.37
Energy supply shock−0.07−0.44−0.16−0.18−0.18−0.41−0.49−0.47−0.42
Mass displacement·−0.28−0.21−0.56−0.46−0.63−0.27−0.03·
Chokepoint closure−0.03−0.44−0.33·−0.20−0.42−0.17−0.34−0.43

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Uzbekistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.4
Energy abundance S16+5.9
Sovereign debt reset S19−0.4
Great-power détente S18−1.0
Middle East settlement S21−4.1
100-day pandemic defence S24−6.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−11.6
Digital state leapfrog S23−16.5
Yield revolution S22−18.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.1
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+6.417.511.135104Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+5.98.52.627111Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−0.42.63.030149Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−1.011.012.030117Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−4.18.512.633156Alliances & Security Cooperation 6 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−6.012.718.727176Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−11.613.725.328136Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−16.511.828.321179Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−18.67.626.228179Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−22.18.030.217117Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception