Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years27.0rank 66 of 197 · 3 years: 28.2
Worst case−20.1%Energy supply shock · tail −16.8%
Opportunity · 10 years−13.9rank 179 of 197 · 3 years: −15.0
Best case+8Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed18%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.01expected index points from best practice
Breadth4 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; share of population aged under 15; industry as a share of gdp; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Tajikistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.80
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.62
Food and water shock S11−0.60
Chokepoint closure S05−0.59
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.58
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.55
AI diffusion shock S13−0.53
Global financial crisis S03−0.50
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.45
Pandemic S14−0.45
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.43
Disaster in the core S10−0.42
Mass displacement S08−0.34
Hybrid campaign S06−0.33
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.77 | −0.80 | −0.97 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.74 | −0.62 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▼ 3 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.4 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.58 | −0.60 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.6 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.61 | −0.59 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.49 | −0.58 | −0.71 | −0.31 | ▲ 8 | 17 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.48 | −0.55 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 5 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.49 | −0.53 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▲ 4 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.41 | −0.50 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 8 | 14 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.60 | −0.45 | −0.53 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.36 | −0.45 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 8 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.43 | −0.51 | −0.23 | ▲ 4 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.51 | −0.42 | −0.55 | −0.24 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Transport Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.50 | −0.34 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.5 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.38 | −0.33 | −0.40 | −0.17 | ▼ 2 | 10 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.10 | −1.14 | −0.38 | −0.48 | −0.48 | −1.07 | −1.27 | −1.22 | −1.09 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.33 | · | −0.85 | −0.47 | −1.10 | −1.53 | −1.26 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.07 | −0.69 | −0.27 | −0.84 | −0.80 | −0.86 | −0.40 | −0.69 | −0.78 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −0.99 | −0.69 | · | −0.44 | −0.95 | −0.38 | −0.76 | −0.98 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.06 | −0.49 | −0.24 | −0.68 | −0.61 | −0.84 | −1.01 | −0.61 | −0.70 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.43 | −0.86 | −0.28 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.70 | −0.61 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.46 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.82 | −0.62 | −0.85 | −0.72 | −0.40 | −0.35 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.51 | −0.51 | −0.64 | −0.85 | −0.73 | −0.58 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.54 | −0.26 | −0.30 | −0.42 | · | −0.84 | · | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Pandemic | −0.37 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.60 | −0.53 | −0.56 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.19 | · | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.83 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.88 | −0.23 | −0.65 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.29 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.70 | −0.58 | −0.79 | −0.34 | −0.04 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.21 | −0.56 | −0.51 | · | −0.62 | −0.58 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Tajikistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+8.2
Emerging-market breakout S20+5.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.5
Middle East settlement S21−3.4
Great-power détente S18−6.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−8.5
100-day pandemic defence S24−15.8
Digital state leapfrog S23−22.3
Yield revolution S22−23.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−34.4
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +8.2 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 14 | 98 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 22 | 112 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.5 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 22 | 110 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −3.4 | 11.4 | 14.7 | 24 | 154 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.8 | 7.5 | 14.2 | 18 | 150 | Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −8.5 | 9.6 | 18.1 | 16 | 121 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Loser | −15.8 | 5.5 | 21.3 | 15 | 196 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −22.3 | 8.6 | 30.9 | 13 | 191 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −23.6 | 7.4 | 31.1 | 15 | 193 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −34.4 | 3.7 | 38.1 | 10 | 173 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |