Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Russia and Eurasia · BLR

Belarus

Baseline index 6.90Rank 83 of 197FoundationalRussia and EurasiaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years15.0rank 117 of 197 · 3 years: 15.4
Worst case−11.7%Pandemic · tail −11.2%
Opportunity · 10 years−5.9rank 121 of 197 · 3 years: −6.8
Best case+19Energy abundance · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed28%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.81expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; no coastline; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Belarus’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.81
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.77
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.74
Global financial crisis S03−0.65
AI diffusion shock S13−0.62
Energy supply shock S09−0.61
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.57
Chokepoint closure S05−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.42
Mass displacement S08−0.30
Food and water shock S11−0.27
Disaster in the core S10−0.23
Hybrid campaign S06−0.15
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.74−0.81−1.16−0.51▼ 225Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.77−0.77−1.12−0.49▲ 127Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.67−0.74−0.96−0.42▼ 423Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.9 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.55−0.65−0.82−0.36▼ 320Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.65−0.62−0.90−0.40021Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.67−0.61−0.87−0.38▼ 224Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.50−0.57−0.72−0.32019Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.1 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.65−0.55−0.77−0.34▼ 319Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.70−0.48−0.71−0.31▼ 118Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.1 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.48−0.42−0.50−0.22▲ 112Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.55−0.30−0.49−0.21016Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.3 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Low 0.30−0.27−0.40−0.18▲ 313Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.6 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10Low 0.34−0.23−0.37−0.16▲ 211Financial System Depth & Access 6.3 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.20−0.15−0.22−0.10▲ 18Maritime Power 0.6 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.86−0.43−0.39−1.04−0.91−0.97−0.91−0.89−0.89
Infrastructure collapse−0.96−1.12−0.44−0.40−0.40−1.00−0.93−0.91−0.80
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.94−0.39−0.39·−0.92−0.89−0.92−0.90−1.35
Global financial crisis−0.32−0.32−0.32−0.65−0.65−0.81−1.08−0.93−0.74
AI diffusion shock−0.81−0.34−0.34−0.90−0.68−0.93−0.79−0.44−0.39
Energy supply shock−0.14−0.85−0.35−0.35−0.35−0.79−0.94−0.91−0.81
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.48−0.30−0.66−0.59−0.82−0.99−0.59−0.68
Chokepoint closure−0.07−0.90−0.79·−0.40−0.87−0.35−0.69−0.89
Single-supplier cut-off−0.93−0.25−0.36−0.40·−0.80·−0.81−0.81
Legitimacy crisis−0.31·−0.67−0.31−0.71−0.99−0.81··
Mass displacement·−0.31−0.25−0.62−0.51−0.70−0.30−0.04·
Food and water shock−0.03−0.30−0.15−0.37−0.36−0.38−0.18−0.30−0.35
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.48−0.16−0.35−0.16−0.40−0.21−0.16−0.16
Hybrid campaign−0.11−0.25−0.29·−0.27−0.26·−0.10−0.10

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Belarus is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+19.4
100-day pandemic defence S24+9.8
Great-power détente S18+6.1
Middle East settlement S21+2.3
Sovereign debt reset S19+1.1
Emerging-market breakout S20−6.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−15.1
Superintelligence takeoff S15−15.6
Yield revolution S22−18.6
Digital state leapfrog S23−19.4
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+19.421.92.53156Energy Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+9.825.515.73488Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+6.118.011.82872Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+2.314.512.234123Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.3 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+1.14.23.027126Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−6.29.715.935180Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−15.121.436.536153Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−15.613.429.02877Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−18.66.024.634178Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−19.410.029.427185Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 · Nascent