Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; refugees hosted per head of population; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Uganda’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.95 | −0.98 | −1.22 | −0.54 | ▼ 2 | 29 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.75 | −0.80 | −1.08 | −0.47 | 0 | 24 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.69 | −0.68 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 21 | Resource Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.69 | −0.65 | −0.80 | −0.36 | ▼ 2 | 14 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.97 | −0.62 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 4 | 19 | Foundational Education 4.9 · Nascent |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.54 | −0.59 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 4 | 19 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.5 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.73 | −0.57 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.49 | −0.56 | −0.69 | −0.31 | ▲ 6 | 15 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.71 | −0.54 | −0.72 | −0.32 | 0 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.4 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.41 | −0.49 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 8 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.62 | −0.48 | −0.60 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.40 | −0.43 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 7 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.29 | −0.31 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▲ 6 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.12 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.20 | −1.37 | −0.51 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −1.28 | −1.52 | −1.47 | −1.30 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.08 | −0.66 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.83 | −1.14 | −1.38 | −0.83 | −0.95 |
| Food and water shock | −0.08 | −0.77 | −0.35 | −0.94 | −0.90 | −0.96 | −0.45 | −0.77 | −0.88 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.09 | −0.83 | · | −0.49 | −1.05 | −0.42 | −0.84 | −1.08 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.64 | −0.48 | −1.29 | −1.06 | −1.46 | −0.62 | −0.08 | · |
| Global financial crisis | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.60 | −0.60 | −0.75 | −0.99 | −0.85 | −0.68 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.19 | −0.36 | −0.88 | −0.40 | −0.99 | −0.53 | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.65 | −0.83 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.69 | −0.68 | −0.59 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.40 | · | −0.79 | −0.40 | −0.92 | −1.29 | −1.06 | · | · |
| Pandemic | −0.52 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.63 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.83 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.41 | · | −0.83 | · | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.52 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.63 | −0.47 | −0.65 | −0.55 | −0.30 | −0.27 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.15 | · | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.57 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.16 | −0.34 | −0.37 | · | −0.38 | −0.36 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Uganda is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +24.0 | 26.8 | 2.8 | 30 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Gainer | +19.5 | 22.6 | 3.1 | 36 | 3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +17.1 | 18.8 | 1.7 | 26 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Gainer | +14.9 | 18.4 | 3.4 | 26 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +11.6 | 20.4 | 8.7 | 32 | 72 | Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.8 | 17.7 | 7.9 | 19 | 91 | Energy Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 30 | 91 | Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +0.4 | 19.9 | 19.5 | 21 | 75 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −1.1 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 25 | 152 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −16.2 | 4.8 | 21.0 | 15 | 79 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |