Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Chokepoint closure, Legitimacy crisis, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; share of population aged under 15; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Palestine’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.89 | −0.97 | −1.15 | −0.51 | ▼ 8 | 25 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.90 | −0.89 | −0.98 | −0.45 | ▼ 5 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.74 | −0.89 | −1.00 | −0.45 | ▼ 6 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.71 | −0.80 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.67 | −0.71 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▼ 5 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.56 | −0.68 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.4 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.52 | −0.65 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▲ 4 | 10 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.79 | −0.63 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 8 | Monetary & Currency Capability 1.1 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.44 | −0.56 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 10 | 11 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.5 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.44 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 6 | 5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.41 | −0.35 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 7 | 5 | Transport Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.33 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▼ 2 | 4 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.30 | −0.38 | −0.16 | 0 | 4 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Low 0.32 | −0.27 | −0.31 | −0.14 | ▲ 7 | 3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water shock | −0.08 | −1.12 | −0.44 | −1.37 | −1.29 | −1.40 | −0.65 | −1.12 | −1.28 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.55 | −0.82 | · | −0.70 | −1.51 | −0.60 | −1.21 | −1.55 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.71 | −1.37 | −0.44 | −0.49 | −0.49 | −1.23 | −1.14 | −1.12 | −0.98 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.08 | −1.14 | −0.38 | −0.48 | −0.48 | −1.07 | −1.27 | −1.22 | −1.09 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.66 | −0.41 | −0.33 | −1.10 | −0.82 | −1.13 | −0.96 | −0.53 | −0.47 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.07 | −0.57 | −0.29 | −0.79 | −0.71 | −0.98 | −1.19 | −0.71 | −0.82 |
| Pandemic | −0.54 | −0.36 | −0.26 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.82 | −0.76 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.37 | · | −0.80 | −0.48 | −1.13 | −1.58 | −1.29 | · | · |
| Global financial crisis | −0.24 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −0.71 | −0.95 | −0.82 | −0.65 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.42 | −0.24 | −0.19 | · | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.57 | −0.56 | −0.83 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.73 | −0.19 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.61 | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.24 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.22 | −0.57 | −0.48 | · | −0.64 | −0.60 | · | −0.24 | −0.24 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.31 | −0.20 | −0.62 | −0.51 | −0.70 | −0.30 | −0.04 | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.24 | · | −0.48 | · | −0.49 | −0.49 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Palestine is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +11.3 | 15.1 | 3.9 | 17 | 74 | Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +10.5 | 12.6 | 2.1 | 18 | 75 | Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.5 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 12 | 105 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +6.7 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 14 | 46 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +3.2 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 16 | 70 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +3.0 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 25 | 101 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +1.6 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 16 | 131 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −9.4 | 5.4 | 14.8 | 15 | 161 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −11.5 | 11.1 | 22.6 | 16 | 162 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −33.5 | 6.3 | 39.8 | 10 | 170 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |