Bhutan · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years32.1rank 47 of 197 · 3 years: 32.0

Worst case−25.4%Energy supply shock · tail −22.7%

Opportunity · 10 years−6.2rank 128 of 197 · 3 years: −7.2

Best case+13Middle East settlement · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed19%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.15expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Bhutan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.00

Chokepoint closure S05−0.84

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83

AI diffusion shock S13−0.77

Global financial crisis S03−0.72

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.72

Pandemic S14−0.71

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.47

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.44

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.42

Food and water shock S11−0.36

Hybrid campaign S06−0.32

Disaster in the core S10−0.31

Mass displacement S08−0.26

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.97	−1.00	−1.18	−0.53	▼ 6	21	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.90	−0.84	−0.96	−0.44	▼ 8	18	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.77	−0.83	−0.97	−0.44	▼ 5	15	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.77	−0.77	−0.93	−0.42	▼ 6	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.64	−0.72	−0.91	−0.40	▲ 3	13	Investment Attraction & Projection 1.2 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.68	−0.72	−0.95	−0.42	▲ 2	13	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.62	−0.71	−0.86	−0.39	0	15	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.68	−0.47	−0.63	−0.28	▲ 2	10	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.8 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.61	−0.44	−0.51	−0.23	▼ 1	9	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.38	−0.42	−0.48	−0.22	▲ 5	8	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.35	−0.36	−0.46	−0.20	▲ 6	8	Resource Infrastructure 1.2 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.37	−0.32	−0.37	−0.16	▼ 5	7	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.41	−0.31	−0.44	−0.19	▲ 7	9	Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.43	−0.26	−0.37	−0.16	0	6	Labour & Employment 4.8 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−1.40	−0.37	−0.61	−0.61	−1.37	−1.62	−1.57	−1.39
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−1.46	−0.68	·	−0.68	−1.45	−0.58	−1.16	−1.49
Infrastructure collapse	−0.35	−1.37	−0.34	−0.49	−0.49	−1.22	−1.14	−1.12	−0.98
AI diffusion shock	−0.35	−0.48	−0.29	−1.27	−0.95	−1.31	−1.11	−0.61	−0.54
Global financial crisis	−0.23	−0.38	−0.23	−0.76	−0.76	−0.95	−1.26	−1.08	−0.87
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.61	−0.23	−0.85	−0.77	−1.05	−1.28	−0.77	−0.88
Pandemic	−0.30	−0.41	−0.23	−1.00	−0.88	−0.94	−0.88	−0.86	−0.86
Legitimacy crisis	−0.22	·	−0.53	−0.38	−0.88	−1.22	−1.00	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.31	−0.28	−0.24	−0.44	·	−0.89	·	−0.90	−0.90
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.25	−0.25	−0.15	·	−0.58	−0.56	−0.58	−0.57	−0.85
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.42	−0.13	−0.51	−0.49	−0.52	−0.24	−0.42	−0.48
Hybrid campaign	−0.18	−0.59	−0.39	·	−0.65	−0.61	·	−0.24	−0.24
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.67	−0.13	−0.49	−0.22	−0.55	−0.30	−0.22	−0.22
Mass displacement	·	−0.28	−0.14	−0.56	−0.46	−0.63	−0.27	−0.03	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Bhutan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+12.6

Energy abundance S16+11.4

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.8

Emerging-market breakout S20+2.0

Yield revolution S22+1.8

100-day pandemic defence S24+0.8

Digital state leapfrog S23−8.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−12.0

Great-power détente S18−15.8

Superintelligence takeoff S15−32.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+12.6	14.4	1.7	22	69	Transport Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+11.4	11.7	0.4	12	84	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.8	11.0	3.2	34	46	Financial Regulation & Integrity 5.8 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+2.0	13.8	11.8	20	143	Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+1.8	5.6	3.8	12	83	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+0.8	7.5	6.7	14	140	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−8.3	10.2	18.5	16	133	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−12.0	9.6	21.6	16	139	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−15.8	4.9	20.7	16	177	Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−32.3	6.5	38.7	11	168	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception