Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years30.6rank 52 of 197 · 3 years: 31.6
Worst case−25.9%Energy supply shock · tail −21.9%
Opportunity · 10 years−1.5rank 91 of 197 · 3 years: −3.9
Best case+17Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.11expected index points from best practice
Breadth4 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Madagascar’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−1.01
Food and water shock S11−0.84
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.72
Chokepoint closure S05−0.72
Global financial crisis S03−0.66
Pandemic S14−0.66
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.65
Disaster in the core S10−0.59
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.58
AI diffusion shock S13−0.49
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.47
Mass displacement S08−0.23
Hybrid campaign S06−0.14
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.94 | −1.01 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 8 | 22 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.80 | −0.84 | −1.05 | −0.46 | ▼ 8 | 15 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.61 | −0.72 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.5 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.72 | −0.72 | −0.85 | −0.38 | ▼ 4 | 11 | Maritime Power 0.7 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.54 | −0.66 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 6 | 12 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2.3 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.52 | −0.66 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▲ 4 | 5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.55 | −0.65 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.68 | −0.59 | −0.74 | −0.32 | ▼ 4 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.73 | −0.58 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▼ 4 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.6 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.43 | −0.49 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.63 | −0.48 | −0.58 | −0.27 | ▼ 4 | 7 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.42 | −0.47 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.33 | −0.23 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.15 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.07 | ▲ 3 | 4 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.06 | −1.44 | −0.54 | −0.60 | −0.60 | −1.35 | −1.60 | −1.54 | −1.37 |
| Food and water shock | −0.06 | −0.96 | −0.43 | −1.17 | −1.12 | −1.20 | −0.56 | −0.96 | −1.09 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.06 | −0.60 | −0.34 | −0.84 | −0.75 | −1.03 | −1.25 | −0.75 | −0.86 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.06 | −1.19 | −0.98 | · | −0.54 | −1.15 | −0.46 | −0.92 | −1.18 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.28 | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.68 | −0.68 | −0.84 | −1.13 | −0.97 | −0.77 |
| Pandemic | −0.56 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.57 | −1.00 | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.82 | −0.71 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.22 | −0.36 | −0.90 | −0.41 | −1.01 | −0.54 | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.35 | · | −0.85 | −0.44 | −1.02 | −1.42 | −1.16 | · | · |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.48 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.74 | −0.55 | −0.76 | −0.64 | −0.35 | −0.32 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.64 | −0.27 | −0.35 | −0.43 | · | −0.88 | · | −0.89 | −0.89 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.44 | −0.26 | −0.24 | · | −0.61 | −0.59 | −0.61 | −0.60 | −0.90 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.48 | −0.39 | −0.54 | −0.23 | −0.03 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.25 | · | −0.26 | −0.24 | · | −0.10 | −0.10 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Madagascar is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+17.3
Yield revolution S22+12.5
Energy abundance S16+9.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+9.5
Middle East settlement S21+6.0
Great-power détente S18+1.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+0.6
100-day pandemic defence S24−4.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−8.1
Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +17.3 | 18.5 | 1.3 | 22 | 33 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Gainer | +12.5 | 16.3 | 3.8 | 17 | 24 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.6 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 12 | 94 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +9.5 | 13.2 | 3.8 | 26 | 34 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +6.0 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 22 | 108 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +1.7 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 22 | 101 | Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +0.6 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 16 | 84 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −4.0 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 16 | 163 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −8.1 | 13.3 | 21.4 | 14 | 132 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −22.0 | 3.1 | 25.2 | 9 | 116 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |