Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years40.7rank 29 of 197 · 3 years: 40.9
Worst case−30.3%Energy supply shock · tail −29.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−4.5rank 111 of 197 · 3 years: −6.3
Best case+13Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed14%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.28expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; share of population aged under 15; public debt relative to gdp; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Gambia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−1.01
Global financial crisis S03−0.94
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.94
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.81
Pandemic S14−0.80
Chokepoint closure S05−0.79
Food and water shock S11−0.68
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.58
AI diffusion shock S13−0.58
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.48
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47
Disaster in the core S10−0.44
Mass displacement S08−0.31
Hybrid campaign S06−0.17
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −1.01 | −1.12 | −0.51 | ▼ 5 | 23 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.78 | −0.94 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 3 | 19 | Economic Output & Productivity 0.5 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.80 | −0.94 | −1.13 | −0.50 | ▼ 4 | 18 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.71 | −0.81 | −0.91 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.66 | −0.80 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.79 | −0.79 | −0.87 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.62 | −0.68 | −0.81 | −0.36 | 0 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.80 | −0.58 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.1 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.53 | −0.58 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.44 | −0.48 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.62 | −0.47 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.44 | −0.55 | −0.24 | 0 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.31 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.19 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.09 | 0 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.32 | −0.49 | −0.61 | −0.61 | −1.38 | −1.63 | −1.58 | −1.40 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.19 | −0.49 | −0.40 | −0.98 | −0.98 | −1.23 | −1.64 | −1.40 | −1.12 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.80 | −0.41 | −1.10 | −0.99 | −1.37 | −1.66 | −0.99 | −1.14 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.27 | −1.31 | −0.44 | −0.48 | −0.48 | −1.19 | −1.11 | −1.09 | −0.96 |
| Pandemic | −0.33 | −0.46 | −0.35 | −1.12 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.27 | −0.90 | · | −0.61 | −1.32 | −0.53 | −1.05 | −1.36 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.77 | −0.33 | −0.95 | −0.91 | −0.97 | −0.45 | −0.78 | −0.89 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.19 | · | −0.77 | −0.46 | −1.08 | −1.51 | −1.24 | · | · |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.23 | −0.35 | −0.30 | −0.94 | −0.70 | −0.97 | −0.82 | −0.45 | −0.40 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.21 | −0.29 | −0.25 | · | −0.67 | −0.64 | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.98 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.35 | −0.46 | · | −0.93 | · | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.92 | −0.27 | −0.68 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.64 | −0.53 | −0.72 | −0.31 | −0.04 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.07 | −0.30 | −0.30 | · | −0.33 | −0.31 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Gambia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Sovereign debt reset S19+12.7
Emerging-market breakout S20+12.2
Yield revolution S22+5.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+0.9
Middle East settlement S21−0.5
Great-power détente S18−0.7
Energy abundance S16−1.2
100-day pandemic defence S24−3.3
Digital state leapfrog S23−9.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−28.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Gainer | +12.7 | 16.5 | 3.8 | 26 | 24 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.8 · Nascent |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +12.2 | 14.2 | 2.0 | 17 | 61 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +5.8 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 14 | 52 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 15 | 83 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −0.5 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 18 | 143 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.7 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 17 | 112 | Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −1.2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 9 | 137 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −3.3 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 14 | 160 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −9.4 | 11.7 | 21.1 | 13 | 146 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −28.0 | 3.1 | 31.1 | 7 | 152 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |