Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · SDN

Sudan

Baseline index 2.61Rank 179 of 197InceptionAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years52.7rank 13 of 197 · 3 years: 50.8
Worst case−46.2%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −39.9%
Opportunity · 10 years−11.6rank 167 of 197 · 3 years: −14.5
Best case+9Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed9%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.39expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Sovereign funding crisis. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; few months of imports covered by reserves; consumer price inflation; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Sudan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.21
Food and water shock S11−1.08
Global financial crisis S03−0.84
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.77
Mass displacement S08−0.71
Energy supply shock S09−0.70
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.68
Pandemic S14−0.60
AI diffusion shock S13−0.57
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47
Chokepoint closure S05−0.45
Disaster in the core S10−0.43
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.25
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.96−1.21−1.28−0.60▼ 720Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.95−1.08−1.25−0.55▼ 520Internal Security & Order 0.2 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.62−0.84−0.90−0.40013Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.85−0.77−0.81−0.37▼ 311Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.93−0.71−0.81−0.36▼ 617Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.63−0.70−0.79−0.35▲ 115Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.56−0.68−0.74−0.34016Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.44−0.60−0.66−0.30▲ 314Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.48−0.57−0.61−0.2809Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.57−0.47−0.52−0.24010Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.43−0.45−0.51−0.23▲ 310Economic Leverage & Dependence 0.2 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.45−0.43−0.49−0.21012National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.2 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Low 0.29−0.36−0.39−0.17▲ 46Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.26−0.25−0.28−0.1208Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Sovereign funding crisis−0.10−1.06−0.60−1.48−1.33−1.74−1.70−1.33−1.52
Food and water shock−0.10−1.23−0.55−1.50−1.43−1.54−0.72−1.23−1.41
Global financial crisis−0.35−0.43−0.39−0.86−0.86−1.08−1.37−1.20−0.98
Legitimacy crisis−0.43·−1.17−0.59−1.31−1.85−1.56··
Mass displacement·−0.73−0.55−1.50−1.22−1.63−0.71−0.09·
Energy supply shock−0.10−1.00−0.37−0.42−0.42−0.94−1.11−1.07−0.90
Infrastructure collapse−0.51−1.05−0.38−0.38−0.38−0.94−0.85−0.86−0.75
Pandemic−0.50−0.33−0.27−0.80−0.70−0.75−0.70−0.69−0.69
AI diffusion shock−0.46−0.33−0.30−0.88−0.66−0.91−0.77−0.42−0.38
Single-supplier cut-off−0.61−0.26−0.34−0.42·−0.84·−0.86−0.86
Chokepoint closure−0.06−0.74−0.62·−0.33−0.71−0.28−0.57−0.73
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.88−0.26−0.65−0.29−0.74−0.39−0.29−0.29
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.37−0.20−0.18·−0.46−0.44−0.46−0.45−0.67
Hybrid campaign−0.17−0.42−0.45·−0.46−0.43·−0.17−0.17

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Sudan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+9.4
Yield revolution S22+6.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+4.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S170.0
Great-power détente S18−5.2
100-day pandemic defence S24−8.7
Middle East settlement S21−10.0
Energy abundance S16−15.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−19.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−35.7
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+9.411.21.81382Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+6.711.14.41147Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+4.89.14.41182Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1.5 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed0.07.97.91088Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−5.23.38.511139Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−8.73.912.610186Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−10.07.517.416169Internal Security & Order 2.7 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−15.75.421.110159Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−19.47.426.88186Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−35.72.037.76178Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception