Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Russia and Eurasia · AZE

Azerbaijan

Baseline index 6.79Rank 85 of 197FoundationalRussia and EurasiaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years13.2rank 128 of 197 · 3 years: 13.8
Worst case−10.4%Infrastructure collapse · tail −9.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−17.2rank 191 of 197 · 3 years: −16.8
Best case+1Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed29%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.67expected index points from best practice
Breadth7 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, AI diffusion shock, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land border with russia or belarus; no coastline; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Azerbaijan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.71
Pandemic S14−0.63
AI diffusion shock S13−0.61
Hybrid campaign S06−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.46
Global financial crisis S03−0.43
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.40
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.39
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.37
Food and water shock S11−0.31
Disaster in the core S10−0.26
Chokepoint closure S05−0.17
Mass displacement S08−0.16
Energy supply shock S09−0.16
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.68−0.71−0.96−0.43▲ 214Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.57−0.63−0.87−0.38▲ 213Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.62−0.61−0.83−0.37▲ 114Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06High 0.72−0.55−0.80−0.35▼ 415Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.69−0.46−0.67−0.30▼ 210Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.41−0.43−0.61−0.27▲ 28Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.8 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.50−0.40−0.51−0.22▲ 26Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.5 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.38−0.39−0.53−0.24▲ 28Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.36−0.37−0.51−0.22▲ 36Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.9 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.36−0.31−0.47−0.21▲ 25Population Health 7.3 · Foundational
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.37−0.26−0.40−0.18▲ 29Financial System Depth & Access 6.4 · Foundational
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.21−0.17−0.25−0.11▲ 55Maritime Power 3.6 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Low 0.28−0.16−0.24−0.11▲ 53Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.1 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09Low 0.18−0.16−0.24−0.10▲ 74Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.85−1.03−0.37−0.37−0.37−0.92−0.86−0.84−0.74
Pandemic−0.66−0.34−0.27−0.81−0.71−0.76−0.71−0.70−0.70
AI diffusion shock−0.73−0.34−0.30−0.90−0.68−0.93−0.79−0.43−0.39
Hybrid campaign−0.41−0.90−0.98·−1.00−0.94·−0.38−0.38
Single-supplier cut-off−0.82−0.25−0.32−0.39·−0.79·−0.80−0.80
Global financial crisis−0.22−0.22−0.19−0.43−0.43−0.54−0.72−0.62−0.49
Legitimacy crisis−0.30·−0.59−0.30−0.69−0.97−0.79··
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.47−0.21−0.19·−0.49−0.47−0.49−0.48−0.72
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.31−0.17−0.43−0.39−0.53−0.65−0.39−0.44
Food and water shock−0.04−0.36−0.16−0.43−0.42−0.44−0.21−0.36−0.41
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.53−0.16−0.40−0.18−0.44−0.24−0.18−0.18
Chokepoint closure−0.02−0.28−0.23·−0.12−0.26−0.11−0.21−0.27
Mass displacement·−0.16−0.12−0.32−0.27−0.36−0.15−0.02·
Energy supply shock−0.04−0.23−0.09−0.10−0.10−0.22−0.26−0.25−0.22

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Azerbaijan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19+0.7
Great-power détente S18+0.4
100-day pandemic defence S24−2.3
Emerging-market breakout S20−5.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−16.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−17.0
Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.5
Yield revolution S22−21.4
Middle East settlement S21−36.1
Energy abundance S16−55.1
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+0.73.42.731129Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.7 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+0.412.011.631108Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−2.314.116.425156Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−5.214.019.238179Investment Attraction & Projection 6.7 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−16.213.129.325155Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−17.010.927.825180Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−20.58.428.918102Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−21.45.026.425191Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−36.15.041.142187Energy Infrastructure 7.8 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−55.12.958.024181Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception