Bolivia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years17.6rank 103 of 197 · 3 years: 16.3

Worst case−17.8%Infrastructure collapse · tail −16.4%

Opportunity · 10 years−10.9rank 161 of 197 · 3 years: −9.2

Best case+10Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 1 of 10

Shock absorbed22%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.77expected index points from best practice

Breadth3 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; few months of imports covered by reserves; oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Bolivia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.91

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.84

Pandemic S14−0.77

Global financial crisis S03−0.65

AI diffusion shock S13−0.63

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.49

Disaster in the core S10−0.48

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.36

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.35

Food and water shock S11−0.26

Energy supply shock S09−0.23

Mass displacement S08−0.22

Hybrid campaign S06−0.20

Chokepoint closure S05−0.14

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.81	−0.91	−1.10	−0.50	▼ 4	22	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.74	−0.84	−1.07	−0.47	▼ 5	19	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.65	−0.77	−0.97	−0.43	▲ 2	20	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.56	−0.65	−0.83	−0.36	▲ 3	19	Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.59	−0.63	−0.78	−0.35	▲ 3	15	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.67	−0.49	−0.67	−0.30	▼ 1	12	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.2 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.62	−0.48	−0.67	−0.29	▼ 1	14	Transport Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.32	−0.36	−0.44	−0.20	▲ 4	8	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.47	−0.35	−0.45	−0.20	▲ 2	8	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.27	−0.26	−0.35	−0.15	▲ 1	8	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.9 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	Low 0.23	−0.23	−0.30	−0.13	▲ 10	11	Energy Technologies 1.5 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.35	−0.22	−0.31	−0.14	▲ 1	7	Internal Security & Order 5.9 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.22	−0.20	−0.25	−0.11	▲ 2	7	Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	Low 0.15	−0.14	−0.18	−0.08	▲ 5	6	Maritime Power 0.4 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.77	−1.39	−0.50	−0.50	−0.50	−1.24	−1.16	−1.13	−0.99
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.09	−0.70	−0.40	−0.98	−0.88	−1.21	−1.47	−0.88	−1.01
Pandemic	−0.65	−0.42	−0.34	−1.02	−0.89	−0.95	−0.89	−0.87	−0.87
Global financial crisis	−0.32	−0.33	−0.30	−0.66	−0.66	−0.83	−1.10	−0.94	−0.75
AI diffusion shock	−0.64	−0.36	−0.32	−0.96	−0.72	−0.99	−0.84	−0.46	−0.41
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−0.73	−0.36	−0.85	−1.18	−0.97	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.99	−0.30	−0.73	−0.33	−0.83	−0.44	−0.33	−0.33
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.40	−0.19	−0.17	·	−0.45	−0.43	−0.45	−0.44	−0.66
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.58	−0.19	−0.24	−0.30	·	−0.61	·	−0.62	−0.62
Food and water shock	−0.03	−0.30	−0.14	−0.37	−0.35	−0.38	−0.18	−0.30	−0.34
Energy supply shock	−0.05	−0.32	−0.12	−0.13	−0.13	−0.30	−0.35	−0.34	−0.30
Mass displacement	·	−0.22	−0.17	−0.46	−0.37	−0.51	−0.22	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.15	−0.33	−0.36	·	−0.37	−0.35	·	−0.14	−0.14
Chokepoint closure	−0.02	−0.23	−0.19	·	−0.10	−0.22	−0.09	−0.17	−0.22

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Bolivia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19+10.2

Emerging-market breakout S20+8.0

100-day pandemic defence S24+3.3

Digital state leapfrog S23−3.9

Great-power détente S18−12.4

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−13.8

Yield revolution S22−15.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15−19.0

Middle East settlement S21−31.1

Energy abundance S16−49.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+10.2	13.5	3.3	33	30	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+8.0	16.3	8.3	26	89	Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+3.3	9.8	6.5	18	115	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−3.9	12.1	16.0	18	100	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−12.4	7.5	19.9	24	168	Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−13.8	11.1	24.9	19	148	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−15.0	6.5	21.5	17	167	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−19.0	6.3	25.4	13	92	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Loser	−31.1	3.6	34.7	30	181	Alliances & Security Cooperation 5.5 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−49.3	3.4	52.7	19	175	Energy Technologies 2 · Inception