Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years13.0rank 129 of 197 · 3 years: 12.8
Worst case−12.8%Infrastructure collapse · tail −11.3%
Opportunity · 10 years−9.8rank 156 of 197 · 3 years: −8.1
Best case+9100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed29%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.65expected index points from best practice
Breadth10 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Trinidad & Tobago’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.86
Pandemic S14−0.77
AI diffusion shock S13−0.65
Global financial crisis S03−0.60
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.55
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.45
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.43
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.39
Disaster in the core S10−0.38
Food and water shock S11−0.32
Mass displacement S08−0.30
Energy supply shock S09−0.24
Hybrid campaign S06−0.22
Chokepoint closure S05−0.17
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.79 | −0.86 | −1.10 | −0.49 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.69 | −0.77 | −1.05 | −0.47 | 0 | 28 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.67 | −0.65 | −0.89 | −0.40 | 0 | 22 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.60 | −0.60 | −0.90 | −0.39 | 0 | 22 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5.5 · Nascent |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.55 | −0.55 | −0.75 | −0.33 | 0 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.46 | −0.45 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 3 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.65 | −0.43 | −0.63 | −0.28 | 0 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.58 | −0.39 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 2 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.2 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.56 | −0.38 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.35 | −0.32 | −0.47 | −0.20 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.8 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.54 | −0.30 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Internal Security & Order 7.7 · Foundational |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.26 | −0.24 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 7 | 13 | Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.25 | −0.22 | −0.27 | −0.12 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.20 | −0.17 | −0.24 | −0.10 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 2.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.85 | −1.29 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.15 | −1.07 | −1.05 | −0.92 |
| Pandemic | −0.72 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −1.02 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.89 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.69 | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.97 | −0.73 | −1.00 | −0.85 | −0.47 | −0.42 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.60 | −0.60 | −0.76 | −1.01 | −0.86 | −0.69 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.59 | −0.30 | −0.27 | · | −0.70 | −0.67 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −1.02 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.47 | −0.65 | −0.79 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.70 | −0.23 | −0.30 | −0.37 | · | −0.74 | · | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.28 | · | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.67 | −0.94 | −0.77 | · | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.79 | −0.24 | −0.58 | −0.26 | −0.66 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.44 | −0.42 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.62 | −0.51 | −0.70 | −0.30 | −0.04 | · |
| Energy supply shock | −0.06 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.32 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.16 | −0.35 | −0.38 | · | −0.39 | −0.37 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −0.29 | −0.24 | · | −0.13 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.28 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Trinidad & Tobago is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+9.0
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.1
Great-power détente S18+0.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−1.0
Emerging-market breakout S20−3.3
Yield revolution S22−11.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15−15.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−16.2
Middle East settlement S21−29.6
Energy abundance S16−49.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +9.0 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 25 | 91 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 45 | 115 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +0.7 | 17.9 | 17.2 | 34 | 105 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.5 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 26 | 78 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −3.3 | 15.9 | 19.2 | 37 | 170 | Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −11.9 | 6.3 | 18.3 | 25 | 156 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −15.7 | 9.5 | 25.2 | 18 | 78 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −16.2 | 12.9 | 29.0 | 27 | 156 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −29.6 | 4.1 | 33.7 | 34 | 179 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 6 · Foundational |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −49.1 | 4.5 | 53.6 | 25 | 174 | Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception |