Malaysia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years7.7rank 166 of 197 · 3 years: 7.9

Worst case−6.2%Pandemic · tail −5.8%

Opportunity · 10 years+12.6rank 38 of 197 · 3 years: +13.1

Best case+38100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed46%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.34expected index points from best practice

Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Malaysia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.72

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.67

AI diffusion shock S13−0.63

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.61

Global financial crisis S03−0.58

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.41

Disaster in the core S10−0.36

Chokepoint closure S05−0.35

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.30

Energy supply shock S09−0.28

Hybrid campaign S06−0.26

Food and water shock S11−0.19

Mass displacement S08−0.16

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Pandemic S14	High 0.81	−0.72	−1.26	−0.55	▲ 1	23	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.78	−0.67	−1.12	−0.49	0	19	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.81	−0.63	−1.11	−0.49	0	18	Artificial Intelligence 7 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.83	−0.61	−1.18	−0.51	▼ 1	14	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 7.8 · Foundational
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.80	−0.58	−1.20	−0.52	▼ 1	13	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9.5 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.91	−0.47	−0.92	−0.40	0	17	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 7.7 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.54	−0.41	−0.78	−0.34	0	12	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9.8 · Transitional
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.63	−0.36	−0.69	−0.30	0	13	Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.52	−0.35	−0.62	−0.27	▲ 2	8	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 9.1 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.48	−0.30	−0.49	−0.21	0	8	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8.4 · Foundational
Energy supply shock S09	Medium 0.39	−0.28	−0.50	−0.22	▲ 3	9	Energy Technologies 7 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.39	−0.26	−0.43	−0.19	▲ 2	8	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 6.1 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.28	−0.19	−0.37	−0.16	0	7	Population Health 10.9 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.36	−0.16	−0.32	−0.14	▲ 2	6	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10.1 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Pandemic	−0.76	−0.38	−0.31	−0.92	−0.81	−0.87	−0.81	−0.79	−0.79
Infrastructure collapse	−0.83	−0.97	−0.35	−0.35	−0.35	−0.86	−0.81	−0.79	−0.69
AI diffusion shock	−0.82	−0.34	−0.31	−0.91	−0.68	−0.94	−0.80	−0.44	−0.39
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.78	−0.33	−0.29	·	−0.76	−0.73	−0.76	−0.74	−1.11
Global financial crisis	−0.29	−0.29	−0.26	−0.59	−0.59	−0.73	−0.98	−0.84	−0.67
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.91	−0.25	−0.32	−0.39	·	−0.79	·	−0.80	−0.80
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.34	−0.19	−0.48	−0.43	−0.59	−0.71	−0.43	−0.49
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.74	−0.22	−0.55	−0.25	−0.61	−0.33	−0.25	−0.25
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−0.57	−0.48	·	−0.25	−0.55	−0.22	−0.44	−0.56
Legitimacy crisis	−0.22	·	−0.44	−0.22	−0.52	−0.72	−0.59	·	·
Energy supply shock	−0.06	−0.39	−0.15	−0.16	−0.16	−0.37	−0.43	−0.42	−0.37
Hybrid campaign	−0.19	−0.42	−0.45	·	−0.46	−0.43	·	−0.17	−0.17
Food and water shock	−0.02	−0.21	−0.10	−0.26	−0.25	−0.27	−0.12	−0.21	−0.24
Mass displacement	·	−0.17	−0.12	−0.34	−0.28	−0.38	−0.16	−0.02	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Malaysia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+37.8

Great-power détente S18+19.8

Superintelligence takeoff S15+19.7

Emerging-market breakout S20+15.6

Digital state leapfrog S23+12.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+9.6

Yield revolution S22+6.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+6.5

Middle East settlement S21−0.5

Energy abundance S16−17.8

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+37.8	39.7	1.9	53	30	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+19.8	44.7	24.9	65	32	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 12 · Established
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Gainer	+19.7	39.1	19.4	50	23	Artificial Intelligence 8.3 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+15.6	29.6	14.1	61	41	Energy Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+12.9	22.4	9.5	51	15	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+9.6	27.1	17.6	53	44	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+6.7	13.7	6.9	55	45	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+6.5	8.0	1.5	54	60	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 9.3 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	−0.5	17.7	18.2	59	142	Energy Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−17.8	13.4	31.3	50	161	Energy Technologies 7.6 · Foundational