Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years9.6rank 153 of 197 · 3 years: 9.4
Worst case−6.6%Pandemic · tail −6.3%
Opportunity · 10 years−3.0rank 103 of 197 · 3 years: +0.5
Best case+22Energy abundance · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed39%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.49expected index points from best practice
Breadth6 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; remittances relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Ukraine’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Pandemic S14−0.62
AI diffusion shock S13−0.58
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.57
Global financial crisis S03−0.56
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.52
Energy supply shock S09−0.42
Hybrid campaign S06−0.40
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37
Chokepoint closure S05−0.35
Disaster in the core S10−0.32
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.31
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.29
Food and water shock S11−0.25
Mass displacement S08−0.12
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.64 | −0.62 | −1.00 | −0.44 | 0 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.67 | −0.58 | −0.92 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.70 | −0.57 | −1.01 | −0.44 | 0 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.2 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.55 | −0.56 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.2 · Nascent |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.52 | −0.52 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.1 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.52 | −0.42 | −0.68 | −0.30 | 0 | 10 | Energy Technologies 5.4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | High 0.71 | −0.40 | −0.79 | −0.34 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Maritime Power 5.7 · Nascent |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.37 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.50 | −0.35 | −0.59 | −0.26 | 0 | 12 | Maritime Power 5.9 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.32 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Financial System Depth & Access 7.2 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.31 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 · Foundational |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.45 | −0.29 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.6 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.29 | −0.25 | −0.39 | −0.17 | 0 | 8 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7.9 · Foundational |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.22 | −0.12 | −0.20 | −0.09 | 0 | 6 | Labour & Employment 8.4 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.66 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.79 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.76 | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.84 | −0.63 | −0.87 | −0.74 | −0.41 | −0.36 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.71 | −0.83 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.69 | −0.68 | −0.59 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −0.71 | −0.95 | −0.81 | −0.65 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.43 | −0.24 | −0.60 | −0.54 | −0.74 | −0.89 | −0.54 | −0.61 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.10 | −0.59 | −0.22 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.56 | −0.66 | −0.63 | −0.56 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.30 | −0.66 | −0.71 | · | −0.73 | −0.68 | · | −0.27 | −0.27 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.18 | · | −0.46 | −0.44 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.67 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −0.58 | −0.49 | · | −0.26 | −0.56 | −0.22 | −0.45 | −0.57 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.55 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.23 | · | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.53 | −0.74 | −0.61 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.56 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.24 | · | −0.48 | · | −0.49 | −0.49 |
| Food and water shock | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.34 | −0.33 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.01 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Ukraine is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+21.9
100-day pandemic defence S24+15.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+7.8
Emerging-market breakout S20+5.3
Middle East settlement S21+4.1
Digital state leapfrog S23+2.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−8.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−13.7
Great-power détente S18−18.6
Yield revolution S22−36.8
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +21.9 | 24.2 | 2.3 | 41 | 49 | Energy Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +15.7 | 28.1 | 12.4 | 44 | 69 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +7.8 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 48 | 42 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.8 · Foundational |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +5.3 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 41 | 118 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +4.1 | 15.4 | 11.3 | 48 | 116 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8.5 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +2.2 | 19.4 | 17.3 | 48 | 62 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −8.4 | 28.0 | 36.4 | 42 | 119 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −13.7 | 14.8 | 28.5 | 33 | 75 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −18.6 | 16.5 | 35.1 | 38 | 181 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −36.8 | 9.8 | 46.5 | 42 | 196 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7 · Foundational |