Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

China · CHN

China

Baseline index 15.64Rank 7 of 197AdvancedChinaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years3.2rank 196 of 197 · 3 years: 3.0
Worst case−2.9%Disaster in the core · tail −2.7%
Opportunity · 10 years+25.4rank 13 of 197 · 3 years: +22.7
Best case+54Energy abundance · gainer in 7 of 10
Shock absorbed58%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.05expected index points from best practice
Breadth1 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 5 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Chokepoint closure, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; land border with russia or belarus; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in China’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Disaster in the core S10−0.46
Pandemic S14−0.42
AI diffusion shock S13−0.39
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.35
Energy supply shock S09−0.29
Chokepoint closure S05−0.28
Global financial crisis S03−0.26
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.24
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.21
Mass displacement S08−0.20
Food and water shock S11−0.20
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.19
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.16
Hybrid campaign S06−0.09
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Disaster in the core S10High 0.93−0.46−1.02−0.44▼ 112Health System Capability 12.4 · Established
Pandemic S14High 0.65−0.42−1.01−0.41010Population Health 10.9 · Transitional
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.64−0.39−0.89−0.3608Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.5 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.67−0.35−0.97−0.35011National Resilience & Crisis Management 14.1 · Established
Energy supply shock S09High 0.62−0.29−0.80−0.2809Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 13.6 · Established
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.63−0.28−0.76−0.2808National Resilience & Crisis Management 14.1 · Established
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.40−0.26−0.60−0.2507Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.8 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.44−0.24−0.62−0.2405Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 12.8 · Established
Legitimacy crisis S07Low 0.32−0.21−0.33−0.1405Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.49−0.20−0.44−0.1905Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.36−0.20−0.48−0.1904Population Health 11.2 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04Low 0.28−0.19−0.41−0.1805Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.9 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.43−0.16−0.44−0.1606Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 12.8 · Established
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.20−0.09−0.22−0.0804Internal Security & Order 13.4 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.94−0.31−0.70−0.31−0.79−0.42−0.31−0.31
Pandemic−0.45−0.22−0.20−0.54−0.48−0.51−0.48−0.47−0.47
AI diffusion shock−0.51−0.21−0.21−0.56−0.42−0.58−0.49−0.27−0.24
Infrastructure collapse−0.43−0.50−0.20−0.18−0.18−0.45−0.42−0.41−0.36
Energy supply shock−0.07−0.40−0.17−0.17−0.17−0.38−0.45−0.43−0.38
Chokepoint closure−0.03−0.45−0.41·−0.20−0.43−0.17−0.34−0.44
Global financial crisis−0.13−0.13−0.13−0.26−0.26−0.33−0.44−0.38−0.30
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.30−0.13−0.13·−0.29−0.28−0.29−0.29−0.43
Legitimacy crisis−0.15·−0.34−0.15−0.36−0.50−0.41··
Mass displacement·−0.20−0.17−0.41−0.34−0.46−0.20−0.02·
Food and water shock−0.02−0.22−0.11−0.27−0.26−0.28−0.13−0.22−0.26
Sovereign funding crisis−0.02−0.16−0.10−0.22−0.20−0.27−0.33−0.20−0.23
Single-supplier cut-off−0.31−0.08−0.12−0.13·−0.27·−0.28−0.28
Hybrid campaign−0.06−0.14−0.16·−0.15−0.14·−0.06−0.06

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what China is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+53.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15+46.1
Middle East settlement S21+43.0
Great-power détente S18+42.9
100-day pandemic defence S24+34.8
Yield revolution S22+19.8
Emerging-market breakout S20+14.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+5.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−1.2
Sovereign debt reset S19−12.1
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+53.954.10.27614Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Gainer+46.163.417.3738Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+43.043.60.6767Internal Security & Order 13.7 · Established
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+42.945.12.2858Trade Policy & Market Access 16.8 · Advanced
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+34.839.64.86733Population Health 11.7 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗Gainer+19.820.91.17411Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+14.825.010.17344Technical & Vocational Skills 13 · Established
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+5.026.721.76561Population Health 11.7 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−1.214.315.55280Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.3 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Loser−12.13.415.447196Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 6.3 · Foundational