Israel · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years4.4rank 188 of 197 · 3 years: 4.0

Worst case−3.4%Infrastructure collapse · tail −3.1%

Opportunity · 10 years+23.5rank 16 of 197 · 3 years: +23.5

Best case+44100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 9 of 10

Shock absorbed54%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.11expected index points from best practice

Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkEnergy Infrastructureweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; little renewable water per head; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Israel’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.50

AI diffusion shock S13−0.44

Pandemic S14−0.44

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37

Global financial crisis S03−0.37

Food and water shock S11−0.35

Chokepoint closure S05−0.33

Mass displacement S08−0.32

Disaster in the core S10−0.29

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.26

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.24

Hybrid campaign S06−0.21

Energy supply shock S09−0.19

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.13

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.80	−0.50	−1.16	−0.46	0	17	Energy Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.73	−0.44	−1.01	−0.43	0	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 12.7 · Established
Pandemic S14	High 0.64	−0.44	−1.00	−0.43	▲ 1	14	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 12.7 · Established
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.50	−0.37	−0.71	−0.31	0	10	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.52	−0.37	−0.77	−0.34	▲ 1	13	Economic Output & Productivity 11.8 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.59	−0.35	−0.79	−0.33	0	12	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.53	−0.33	−0.64	−0.27	▲ 2	16	Resource Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08	High 0.85	−0.32	−0.76	−0.32	0	10	Foundational Education 12.9 · Established
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.62	−0.29	−0.68	−0.29	0	15	Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.37	−0.26	−0.53	−0.23	▲ 1	10	Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.48	−0.24	−0.49	−0.22	0	9	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 12.3 · Established
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.47	−0.21	−0.53	−0.20	▲ 2	9	Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
Energy supply shock S09	Low 0.28	−0.19	−0.37	−0.16	▲ 2	9	Resource Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Low 0.26	−0.13	−0.27	−0.11	▲ 2	7	Resource Infrastructure 10.3 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.62	−0.72	−0.28	−0.26	−0.26	−0.64	−0.60	−0.59	−0.51
AI diffusion shock	−0.57	−0.24	−0.24	−0.63	−0.47	−0.65	−0.55	−0.30	−0.27
Pandemic	−0.46	−0.23	−0.21	−0.56	−0.49	−0.53	−0.49	−0.48	−0.48
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.47	−0.20	−0.20	·	−0.46	−0.44	−0.46	−0.45	−0.67
Global financial crisis	−0.18	−0.18	−0.18	−0.37	−0.37	−0.46	−0.61	−0.53	−0.42
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.39	−0.20	−0.48	−0.46	−0.49	−0.23	−0.39	−0.45
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−0.54	−0.49	·	−0.24	−0.52	−0.21	−0.41	−0.53
Mass displacement	·	−0.33	−0.27	−0.67	−0.55	−0.75	−0.32	−0.04	·
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.59	−0.20	−0.44	−0.20	−0.50	−0.26	−0.20	−0.20
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.03	−0.21	−0.13	−0.30	−0.27	−0.37	−0.45	−0.27	−0.31
Legitimacy crisis	−0.18	·	−0.39	−0.18	−0.41	−0.57	−0.47	·	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.15	−0.34	−0.39	·	−0.37	−0.35	·	−0.14	−0.14
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−0.27	−0.11	−0.11	−0.11	−0.25	−0.29	−0.28	−0.25
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.25	−0.07	−0.10	−0.11	·	−0.22	·	−0.22	−0.22

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Israel is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+43.7

Middle East settlement S21+39.6

Superintelligence takeoff S15+38.2

Emerging-market breakout S20+23.7

Great-power détente S18+22.7

Digital state leapfrog S23+19.1

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+18.3

Yield revolution S22+15.2

Energy abundance S16+12.0

Sovereign debt reset S19+1.8

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+43.7	46.3	2.6	72	22	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+39.6	45.7	6.1	58	10	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Gainer	+38.2	50.2	12.0	64	13	Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+23.7	26.6	2.9	61	9	Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+22.7	29.1	6.4	59	23	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+19.1	28.2	9.1	71	7	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 13.3 · Established
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+18.3	31.8	13.5	75	18	Social Infrastructure 14.8 · Established
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+15.2	16.7	1.5	68	15	Transport Infrastructure 12.4 · Established
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+12.0	21.3	9.2	61	82	Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+1.8	4.4	2.6	70	116	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 13.3 · Established