Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · DJI

Djibouti

Baseline index 3.20Rank 166 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years52.0rank 16 of 197 · 3 years: 50.1
Worst case−32.1%Energy supply shock · tail −30.2%
Opportunity · 10 years−8.3rank 144 of 197 · 3 years: −10.7
Best case+8Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed14%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.62expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; youth unemployment rate; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves; little renewable water per head; refugees hosted per head of population; low life expectancy at birth.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Djibouti’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.03
Pandemic S14−0.95
Food and water shock S11−0.92
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.92
Global financial crisis S03−0.91
Chokepoint closure S05−0.86
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.85
Disaster in the core S10−0.79
AI diffusion shock S13−0.73
Mass displacement S08−0.70
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.68
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.64
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.52
Hybrid campaign S06−0.28
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.92−1.03−1.14−0.51▼ 525Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.78−0.95−1.09−0.48▼ 527Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.87−0.92−1.13−0.50▼ 727Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.82−0.92−1.04−0.47▼ 625Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.76−0.91−1.08−0.48▼ 424Economic Output & Productivity 0.6 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.86−0.86−0.99−0.44▼ 521Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.70−0.85−1.00−0.44▼ 325Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.88−0.79−0.96−0.42▼ 521Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.68−0.73−0.82−0.36▼ 420Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.97−0.70−0.86−0.38▼ 917Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.3 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.81−0.68−0.78−0.34▼ 315Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.5 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.59−0.64−0.73−0.32▼ 219Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.71−0.52−0.58−0.26▼ 115Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.32−0.28−0.33−0.15▼ 19Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.06−1.42−0.55−0.61−0.61−1.38−1.63−1.57−1.40
Pandemic−0.19−0.56−0.46−1.36−1.19−1.28−1.19−1.17−1.17
Food and water shock−0.06−1.05−0.48−1.29−1.23−1.32−0.62−1.06−1.21
Infrastructure collapse−0.19−1.51−0.54−0.54−0.54−1.35−1.26−1.23−1.08
Global financial crisis−0.15−0.48−0.43−0.95−0.95−1.19−1.58−1.36−1.09
Chokepoint closure−0.06−1.40−1.18·−0.64−1.37−0.55−1.09−1.41
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.71−0.40−0.98−0.88−1.21−1.47−0.88−1.01
Disaster in the core−0.05−1.62−0.49−1.20−0.54−1.35−0.72−0.54−0.54
AI diffusion shock−0.19−0.45−0.41−1.21−0.91−1.25−1.06−0.58−0.52
Mass displacement·−0.71−0.54−1.46−1.19−1.64−0.69−0.09·
Legitimacy crisis−0.16·−1.06−0.53−1.25−1.74−1.43··
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.19−0.38−0.34·−0.89−0.86−0.89−0.87−1.31
Single-supplier cut-off−0.19−0.33−0.42−0.52·−1.06·−1.08−1.08
Hybrid campaign−0.08−0.49−0.53·−0.54−0.51·−0.20−0.20

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Djibouti is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+8.1
Middle East settlement S21+7.8
Energy abundance S16+7.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+5.3
Yield revolution S22+4.2
Great-power détente S18+1.4
100-day pandemic defence S24−5.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−6.4
Digital state leapfrog S23−15.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−46.7
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+8.112.84.71888Industrial & Sectoral Base 2.5 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+7.813.86.02291Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+7.68.91.210104Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+5.39.23.81879Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+4.28.44.11065Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+1.49.27.818103Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−5.46.411.89171Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−6.48.114.510111Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−15.39.224.511175Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−46.73.450.07196Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception