Sierra Leone · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years33.7rank 42 of 197 · 3 years: 34.9

Worst case−28.9%Energy supply shock · tail −25.6%

Opportunity · 10 years−1.3rank 90 of 197 · 3 years: −3.4

Best case+14Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed16%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.13expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; share of exports going to china and the united states; low life expectancy at birth; consumer price inflation; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Sierra Leone’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.04

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.88

Food and water shock S11−0.84

Chokepoint closure S05−0.68

Global financial crisis S03−0.67

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.65

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.60

Pandemic S14−0.59

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.54

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.49

AI diffusion shock S13−0.47

Disaster in the core S10−0.34

Mass displacement S08−0.30

Hybrid campaign S06−0.14

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.96	−1.04	−1.21	−0.53	▼ 5	24	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.76	−0.88	−1.09	−0.48	▼ 4	19	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.80	−0.84	−1.04	−0.46	▼ 4	20	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.70	−0.68	−0.80	−0.36	▲ 1	16	Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.56	−0.67	−0.81	−0.36	▲ 1	20	Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.9 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.57	−0.65	−0.74	−0.33	▲ 1	18	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.56	−0.60	−0.71	−0.31	▼ 2	15	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.48	−0.59	−0.69	−0.31	▲ 2	16	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.74	−0.54	−0.70	−0.31	0	8	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.6 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.67	−0.49	−0.57	−0.26	0	15	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.42	−0.47	−0.53	−0.24	▲ 3	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.39	−0.34	−0.42	−0.18	▲ 5	9	Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.43	−0.30	−0.38	−0.17	▼ 1	7	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.15	−0.14	−0.16	−0.07	▲ 2	6	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−1.48	−0.53	−0.62	−0.62	−1.39	−1.65	−1.59	−1.42
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.74	−0.40	−1.03	−0.92	−1.27	−1.54	−0.92	−1.06
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.97	−0.42	−1.19	−1.13	−1.21	−0.57	−0.97	−1.11
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−1.15	−0.88	·	−0.52	−1.11	−0.44	−0.89	−1.14
Global financial crisis	−0.17	−0.35	−0.31	−0.69	−0.69	−0.87	−1.16	−0.99	−0.79
Infrastructure collapse	−0.30	−1.05	−0.37	−0.38	−0.38	−0.94	−0.88	−0.86	−0.75
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.28	−0.35	−0.32	·	−0.83	−0.80	−0.83	−0.81	−1.22
Pandemic	−0.31	−0.34	−0.27	−0.81	−0.71	−0.76	−0.71	−0.70	−0.70
Legitimacy crisis	−0.20	·	−0.76	−0.42	−0.98	−1.37	−1.12	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.35	−0.30	−0.37	−0.47	·	−0.96	·	−0.98	−0.98
AI diffusion shock	−0.28	−0.28	−0.25	−0.74	−0.56	−0.77	−0.65	−0.36	−0.32
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.70	−0.21	−0.51	−0.23	−0.58	−0.31	−0.23	−0.23
Mass displacement	·	−0.31	−0.23	−0.62	−0.51	−0.70	−0.30	−0.04	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.05	−0.24	−0.26	·	−0.26	−0.25	·	−0.10	−0.10

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Sierra Leone is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19+14.3

Emerging-market breakout S20+11.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+9.1

Yield revolution S22+8.8

Energy abundance S16+8.0

Middle East settlement S21+5.5

Great-power détente S18+2.7

100-day pandemic defence S24−6.1

Digital state leapfrog S23−7.5

Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.7

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+14.3	18.0	3.7	29	16	Financial Regulation & Integrity 5.3 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+11.9	16.0	4.1	19	65	Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+9.1	11.9	2.8	14	48	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+8.8	12.8	4.0	13	37	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+8.0	9.2	1.2	10	99	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+5.5	11.2	5.8	21	113	Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+2.7	10.0	7.4	18	89	Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−6.1	5.4	11.5	13	177	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−7.5	12.3	19.8	13	128	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−20.7	2.7	23.3	8	105	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception