Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · MMR

Myanmar

Baseline index 3.89Rank 147 of 197NascentIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years28.1rank 63 of 197 · 3 years: 29.2
Worst case−20.0%Disaster in the core · tail −19.1%
Opportunity · 10 years−15.7rank 187 of 197 · 3 years: −14.7
Best case+4Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed15%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.04expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; industry as a share of gdp; oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; consumer price inflation; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Myanmar’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Disaster in the core S10−0.78
AI diffusion shock S13−0.73
Pandemic S14−0.72
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.67
Global financial crisis S03−0.66
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.62
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.61
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.60
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.51
Energy supply shock S09−0.42
Chokepoint closure S05−0.38
Hybrid campaign S06−0.30
Food and water shock S11−0.29
Mass displacement S08−0.19
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Disaster in the core S10High 0.86−0.78−0.94−0.41▼ 1125National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.9 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.64−0.73−0.83−0.38▼ 518Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.55−0.72−0.83−0.37019Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.58−0.67−0.79−0.35▼ 616Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.51−0.66−0.75−0.33▲ 617Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.49−0.62−0.71−0.31▲ 818Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.78−0.61−0.74−0.33▼ 612Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.50−0.60−0.71−0.31▲ 513Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.56−0.51−0.56−0.25▼ 115Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.39−0.42−0.50−0.22▲ 911Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.41−0.38−0.48−0.21▲ 810Economic Leverage & Dependence 2.7 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.33−0.30−0.36−0.16▼ 47Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Low 0.28−0.29−0.37−0.16▲ 910Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.3 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Low 0.26−0.19−0.23−0.10▲ 65Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.7 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Disaster in the core−0.05−1.61−0.48−1.19−0.54−1.34−0.72−0.54−0.54
AI diffusion shock−0.72−0.42−0.38−1.12−0.84−1.12−0.98−0.54−0.48
Pandemic−0.67−0.39−0.32−0.94−0.82−0.88−0.82−0.80−0.80
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.70−0.37−0.33·−0.86−0.83−0.86−0.84−1.27
Global financial crisis−0.31−0.33−0.30−0.67−0.67−0.83−1.11−0.95−0.76
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.52−0.29−0.72−0.65−0.89−1.08−0.65−0.74
Single-supplier cut-off−0.97−0.33−0.43−0.53·−1.07·−1.09−1.09
Infrastructure collapse−0.68−0.89−0.32−0.32−0.32−0.79−0.74−0.72−0.63
Legitimacy crisis−0.34·−0.76−0.38−0.88−1.20−1.01··
Energy supply shock−0.10−0.58−0.22−0.24−0.24−0.55−0.65−0.63−0.56
Chokepoint closure−0.05−0.63−0.54·−0.28−0.61−0.24−0.49−0.63
Hybrid campaign−0.22−0.49−0.53·−0.55−0.51·−0.20−0.20
Food and water shock−0.03−0.34−0.15−0.41−0.39−0.42−0.20−0.34−0.38
Mass displacement·−0.19−0.14−0.39−0.32−0.44−0.19−0.02·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Myanmar is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+3.7
100-day pandemic defence S24+3.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−8.5
Yield revolution S22−8.8
Great-power détente S18−22.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−23.7
Middle East settlement S21−27.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−30.8
Energy abundance S16−55.2
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+3.714.010.221130Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+3.67.53.915114Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+0.74.74.015130Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.3 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−8.58.717.113137Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−8.87.416.218141Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−22.29.331.619185Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−23.79.533.216180Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−27.66.734.322177Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−30.85.836.69165Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−55.24.059.315182Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception