Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years5.5rank 181 of 197 · 3 years: 5.8
Worst case−4.3%Infrastructure collapse · tail −4.0%
Opportunity · 10 years+24.1rank 15 of 197 · 3 years: +25.1
Best case+58100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 6 of 10
Shock absorbed55%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.18expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Hybrid campaign, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Denmark’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.61
Pandemic S14−0.59
AI diffusion shock S13−0.48
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.47
Global financial crisis S03−0.43
Energy supply shock S09−0.41
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.38
Chokepoint closure S05−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.31
Disaster in the core S10−0.18
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.17
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.17
Mass displacement S08−0.17
Food and water shock S11−0.16
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.82 | −0.61 | −1.18 | −0.50 | 0 | 18 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 8.9 · Foundational |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.90 | −0.59 | −1.40 | −0.56 | 0 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.9 · Transitional |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.86 | −0.48 | −1.18 | −0.44 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.1 · Nascent |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.70 | −0.47 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 · Nascent |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.70 | −0.43 | −1.04 | −0.42 | 0 | 13 | Economic Output & Productivity 13.6 · Established |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.60 | −0.41 | −0.78 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Energy Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.77 | −0.38 | −0.78 | −0.33 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.56 | −0.36 | −0.67 | −0.28 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.55 | −0.31 | −0.61 | −0.26 | 0 | 10 | Maritime Power 9.2 · Transitional |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.46 | −0.18 | −0.50 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.30 | −0.17 | −0.43 | −0.17 | 0 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.43 | −0.17 | −0.43 | −0.16 | 0 | 5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.5 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.53 | −0.17 | −0.47 | −0.17 | 0 | 5 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.31 | −0.16 | −0.41 | −0.16 | 0 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 9.4 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.76 | −0.88 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.79 | −0.73 | −0.72 | −0.63 |
| Pandemic | −0.62 | −0.31 | −0.26 | −0.76 | −0.66 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.65 | −0.65 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.62 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.69 | −0.52 | −0.72 | −0.61 | −0.33 | −0.30 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.59 | −0.25 | −0.22 | · | −0.58 | −0.56 | −0.58 | −0.57 | −0.85 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −0.55 | −0.73 | −0.62 | −0.50 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.10 | −0.57 | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.54 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.74 | −0.20 | −0.26 | −0.32 | · | −0.64 | · | −0.65 | −0.65 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.59 | −0.50 | · | −0.26 | −0.57 | −0.23 | −0.45 | −0.58 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.23 | −0.50 | −0.55 | · | −0.56 | −0.52 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.13 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.25 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.21 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.13 | · | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.41 | −0.34 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.02 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.21 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Denmark is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+57.5
Great-power détente S18+38.8
Energy abundance S16+32.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15+27.0
Middle East settlement S21+25.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+23.2
Digital state leapfrog S23+9.7
Emerging-market breakout S20+5.5
Yield revolution S22+1.6
Sovereign debt reset S19−1.9
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +57.5 | 58.6 | 1.1 | 70 | 9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · Established |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +38.8 | 45.1 | 6.4 | 71 | 11 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.3 · Established |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +32.8 | 35.2 | 2.4 | 59 | 31 | Energy Technologies 9.4 · Transitional |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +27.0 | 34.6 | 7.7 | 48 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +25.4 | 27.1 | 1.7 | 64 | 36 | Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +23.2 | 32.9 | 9.8 | 79 | 9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +9.7 | 12.7 | 3.0 | 69 | 27 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.8 · Transitional |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +5.5 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 65 | 116 | Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +1.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 77 | 86 | Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.9 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 83 | 162 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 16 · Advanced |