Tuvalu · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years58.6rank 10 of 197 · 3 years: 57.1

Worst case−40.5%Pandemic · tail −39.9%

Opportunity · 10 years−13.0rank 173 of 197 · 3 years: −12.1

Best case+5Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10

Shock absorbed9%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.19expected index points from best practice

Breadth3 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: adult obesity rate; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Tuvalu’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.86

Global financial crisis S03−0.85

AI diffusion shock S13−0.83

Energy supply shock S09−0.78

Chokepoint closure S05−0.76

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.70

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.69

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.58

Disaster in the core S10−0.50

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.46

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.38

Food and water shock S11−0.37

Hybrid campaign S06−0.29

Mass displacement S08−0.18

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Pandemic S14	High 0.73	−0.86	−0.95	−0.44	▼ 3	10	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.71	−0.85	−0.92	−0.43	▼ 2	6	Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.80	−0.83	−0.90	−0.41	▼ 3	6	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.75	−0.78	−0.84	−0.40	▲ 2	6	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.87	−0.76	−0.81	−0.40	▼ 3	7	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.66	−0.70	−0.75	−0.36	0	7	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.56	−0.69	−0.77	−0.35	▲ 2	5	Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.2 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.57	−0.58	−0.63	−0.30	▼ 1	5	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.58	−0.50	−0.60	−0.27	▼ 1	6	Energy Infrastructure 0.5 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.67	−0.46	−0.55	−0.26	▲ 1	3	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.57	−0.38	−0.41	−0.20	0	2	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.33	−0.37	−0.41	−0.18	▲ 6	4	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.35	−0.29	−0.31	−0.15	▼ 2	3	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.26	−0.18	−0.22	−0.10	▲ 3	2	Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Pandemic	−0.08	−0.48	−0.26	−1.30	−1.09	−1.22	−1.14	−1.04	−1.11
Global financial crisis	−0.08	−0.43	−0.26	−0.97	−0.97	−1.21	−1.57	−1.16	−0.97
AI diffusion shock	−0.08	−0.48	−0.28	−1.43	−1.08	−1.50	−1.27	−0.70	−0.62
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−0.93	−0.27	−0.52	−0.52	−1.17	−1.39	−1.02	−1.17
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−1.15	−0.33	·	−0.71	−1.52	−0.61	−1.08	−1.45
Infrastructure collapse	−0.08	−1.10	−0.25	−0.46	−0.46	−1.15	−1.04	−0.87	−0.92
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.53	−0.22	−0.83	−0.75	−1.03	−1.25	−0.71	−0.86
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.08	−0.35	−0.22	·	−0.90	−0.87	−0.90	−0.77	−1.16
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−0.98	−0.21	−0.81	−0.36	−0.91	−0.49	−0.36	−0.36
Legitimacy crisis	−0.08	·	−0.33	−0.41	−0.95	−1.32	−1.08	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.08	−0.22	−0.22	−0.44	·	−0.89	·	−0.78	−0.82
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.37	−0.13	−0.53	−0.50	−0.54	−0.25	−0.43	−0.49
Hybrid campaign	−0.05	−0.53	−0.29	·	−0.65	−0.61	·	−0.24	−0.24
Mass displacement	·	−0.19	−0.10	−0.39	−0.32	−0.44	−0.19	−0.02	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Tuvalu is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+4.7

Middle East settlement S21+3.7

Emerging-market breakout S20+2.8

100-day pandemic defence S24+1.4

Sovereign debt reset S19+0.8

Digital state leapfrog S23−9.8

Yield revolution S22−15.2

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−28.1

Great-power détente S18−29.5

Superintelligence takeoff S15−42.9

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+4.7	5.6	0.9	6	116	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+3.7	5.7	2.1	13	118	Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+2.8	7.0	4.2	10	137	Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+1.4	5.4	4.0	8	133	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+0.8	4.9	4.1	16	128	Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.3 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−9.8	5.5	15.3	8	153	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−15.2	2.6	17.8	6	169	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−28.1	7.2	35.3	9	187	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−29.5	3.1	32.6	7	196	Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−42.9	3.6	46.5	5	190	Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception