Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Latvia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.91 | −0.80 | −1.17 | −0.51 | ▼ 2 | 29 | Energy Technologies 1.3 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.86 | −0.80 | −1.33 | −0.58 | 0 | 31 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.1 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.83 | −0.66 | −1.13 | −0.50 | 0 | 31 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.73 | −0.65 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 29 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.81 | −0.64 | −0.96 | −0.42 | 0 | 22 | Resource Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | High 0.89 | −0.59 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Air Power 2.4 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.70 | −0.58 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 26 | Economic Output & Productivity 7.8 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.63 | −0.54 | −0.88 | −0.39 | 0 | 25 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.72 | −0.47 | −0.73 | −0.32 | 0 | 22 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.43 | −0.34 | −0.62 | −0.27 | 0 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 8.4 · Foundational |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.56 | −0.26 | −0.49 | −0.22 | 0 | 11 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.41 | −0.22 | −0.42 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9 · Transitional |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Low 0.32 | −0.18 | −0.35 | −0.15 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 8.6 · Foundational |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.15 | −0.11 | −0.20 | −0.09 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Resource Infrastructure 4.5 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.19 | −1.11 | −0.42 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.04 | −1.24 | −1.19 | −1.06 |
| Pandemic | −0.85 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −1.03 | −0.90 | −0.97 | −0.90 | −0.89 | −0.89 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.87 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.96 | −0.72 | −0.99 | −0.84 | −0.46 | −0.41 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.82 | −0.95 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.78 | −0.68 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.06 | −0.89 | · | −0.47 | −1.02 | −0.41 | −0.81 | −1.04 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.44 | −0.96 | −1.04 | · | −1.07 | −1.00 | · | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.58 | −0.58 | −0.73 | −0.97 | −0.83 | −0.66 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.69 | −0.29 | −0.26 | · | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.99 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.91 | −0.24 | −0.31 | −0.39 | · | −0.79 | · | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.49 | −0.59 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.53 | −0.44 | −0.60 | −0.25 | −0.03 | · |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.16 | · | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.52 | −0.42 | · | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.12 |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.14 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Latvia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +30.8 | 32.8 | 2.0 | 41 | 39 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +29.5 | 32.6 | 3.1 | 34 | 38 | Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +26.8 | 29.4 | 2.6 | 50 | 33 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +14.7 | 27.3 | 12.5 | 48 | 46 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +5.0 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 48 | 52 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | +2.2 | 21.4 | 19.3 | 31 | 40 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +0.1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 52 | 152 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | 0.0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 63 | 147 | Health System Capability 12 · Established |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −2.6 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 42 | 117 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −4.3 | 24.9 | 29.2 | 43 | 104 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |