Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years15.3rank 113 of 197 · 3 years: 14.8
Worst case−12.4%Energy supply shock · tail −11.2%
Opportunity · 10 years+11.7rank 40 of 197 · 3 years: +10.4
Best case+27Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 6 of 10
Shock absorbed29%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.83expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; little renewable water per head; share of population aged under 15; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Kenya’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.89
Food and water shock S11−0.86
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.66
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.60
Chokepoint closure S05−0.59
Mass displacement S08−0.55
Global financial crisis S03−0.54
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.52
AI diffusion shock S13−0.50
Pandemic S14−0.47
Disaster in the core S10−0.45
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.35
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.23
Hybrid campaign S06−0.22
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −0.89 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 7 | 27 | Energy Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.95 | −0.86 | −1.25 | −0.55 | ▼ 10 | 23 | Resource Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.66 | −0.66 | −0.95 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 · Nascent |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.56 | −0.60 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.4 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.67 | −0.59 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 4 | 18 | Maritime Power 2 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.93 | −0.55 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Internal Security & Order 5.8 · Nascent |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.53 | −0.54 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 16 | Labour & Employment 5.7 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.77 | −0.52 | −0.79 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.1 · Foundational |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.51 | −0.50 | −0.69 | −0.31 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.42 | −0.47 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.3 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.61 | −0.45 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.48 | −0.35 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.24 | −0.23 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 4 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.27 | −0.22 | −0.30 | −0.13 | 0 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.21 | −1.24 | −0.46 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.16 | −1.38 | −1.33 | −1.18 |
| Food and water shock | −0.10 | −0.98 | −0.44 | −1.20 | −1.14 | −1.22 | −0.57 | −0.98 | −1.12 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.07 | −0.55 | −0.31 | −0.76 | −0.68 | −0.94 | −1.14 | −0.68 | −0.78 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.75 | −0.87 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.78 | −0.73 | −0.71 | −0.62 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.07 | −0.97 | −0.82 | · | −0.43 | −0.93 | −0.37 | −0.75 | −0.96 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.56 | −0.42 | −1.15 | −0.94 | −1.29 | −0.55 | −0.07 | · |
| Global financial crisis | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.54 | −0.68 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.62 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.38 | · | −0.76 | −0.38 | −0.89 | −1.24 | −1.02 | · | · |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.65 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.73 | −0.55 | −0.76 | −0.64 | −0.35 | −0.31 |
| Pandemic | −0.50 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.60 | −0.53 | −0.57 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.93 | −0.28 | −0.69 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.68 | −0.18 | −0.24 | −0.29 | · | −0.59 | · | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.11 | · | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.43 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.16 | −0.36 | −0.39 | · | −0.40 | −0.37 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Kenya is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+26.9
Yield revolution S22+26.6
Energy abundance S16+24.4
Middle East settlement S21+21.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+16.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+16.4
Digital state leapfrog S23+10.0
Great-power détente S18+4.5
100-day pandemic defence S24+3.1
Superintelligence takeoff S15−16.6
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +26.9 | 30.0 | 3.1 | 38 | 5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 7 · Foundational |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Gainer | +26.6 | 29.7 | 3.1 | 33 | 1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +24.4 | 25.3 | 0.9 | 28 | 45 | Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +21.7 | 26.1 | 4.4 | 41 | 44 | Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +16.8 | 23.5 | 6.7 | 32 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Gainer | +16.4 | 19.2 | 2.8 | 42 | 9 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +10.0 | 27.0 | 17.0 | 32 | 25 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.5 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 38 | 82 | Export Capability & Sophistication 6.3 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +3.1 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 32 | 118 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −16.6 | 7.8 | 24.4 | 20 | 83 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |