Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Czechia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.86 | −0.71 | −1.33 | −0.58 | 0 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.96 | −0.70 | −1.24 | −0.54 | ▼ 3 | 14 | Energy Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.81 | −0.59 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.73 | −0.59 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 13 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 6.8 · Foundational |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.80 | −0.59 | −1.09 | −0.48 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.5 · Nascent |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.70 | −0.54 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 16 | Economic Output & Productivity 10.9 · Transitional |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.63 | −0.50 | −0.89 | −0.39 | 0 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.86 | −0.47 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.53 | −0.32 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.58 | −0.24 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▼ 1 | 5 | Labour & Employment 12.8 · Established |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.43 | −0.22 | −0.47 | −0.20 | 0 | 7 | Transport Infrastructure 11 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.40 | −0.21 | −0.41 | −0.18 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.7 · Transitional |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.30 | −0.20 | −0.39 | −0.17 | ▼ 1 | 6 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 · Foundational |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.24 | −0.18 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.76 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.92 | −0.80 | −0.86 | −0.80 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.16 | −0.98 | −0.37 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −0.92 | −1.09 | −1.05 | −0.94 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.00 | −0.74 | · | −0.45 | −0.96 | −0.38 | −0.77 | −0.98 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.74 | −0.86 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.72 | −0.70 | −0.61 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.78 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.86 | −0.65 | −0.89 | −0.75 | −0.42 | −0.37 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.54 | −0.54 | −0.68 | −0.91 | −0.78 | −0.62 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.64 | −0.27 | −0.24 | · | −0.63 | −0.60 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.92 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.92 | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.39 | · | −0.79 | · | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.54 | · | −0.59 | −0.56 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.50 | −0.41 | −0.57 | −0.24 | −0.03 | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.46 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.15 | · | −0.31 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.41 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.23 | −0.26 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.26 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.22 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Czechia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +50.2 | 50.4 | 0.2 | 51 | 17 | Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +43.1 | 44.9 | 1.8 | 56 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +32.4 | 33.3 | 0.9 | 56 | 21 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +20.8 | 31.8 | 11.0 | 56 | 31 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10 · Transitional |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +15.9 | 31.8 | 15.9 | 47 | 26 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +5.7 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 54 | 49 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +5.4 | 30.8 | 25.4 | 57 | 59 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 56 | 100 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −1.7 | 14.2 | 15.8 | 62 | 165 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 11.5 · Transitional |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −3.9 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 64 | 180 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 · Established |