Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Belgium’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.95 | −0.67 | −1.48 | −0.63 | 0 | 26 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.7 · Transitional |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −0.62 | −1.19 | −0.52 | 0 | 26 | Resource Infrastructure 7.8 · Foundational |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.84 | −0.62 | −1.22 | −0.53 | 0 | 25 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 7.7 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.90 | −0.59 | −1.35 | −0.58 | 0 | 24 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 12.8 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.87 | −0.57 | −1.21 | −0.52 | 0 | 24 | Artificial Intelligence 9.8 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.84 | −0.56 | −1.01 | −0.44 | 0 | 24 | Maritime Power 6.4 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.69 | −0.47 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.3 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.63 | −0.42 | −0.91 | −0.39 | 0 | 19 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.5 · Established |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.72 | −0.36 | −0.73 | −0.32 | 0 | 15 | Resource Infrastructure 8.7 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.54 | −0.33 | −0.61 | −0.27 | 0 | 12 | Maritime Power 6.9 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.52 | −0.25 | −0.54 | −0.23 | 0 | 8 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.3 · Transitional |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.48 | −0.22 | −0.52 | −0.22 | 0 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 12.9 · Established |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.55 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.20 | 0 | 11 | Internal Security & Order 14.3 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.29 | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.17 | 0 | 10 | Resource Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.71 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.81 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.14 | −0.85 | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.80 | −0.95 | −0.91 | −0.81 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.76 | −0.89 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.80 | −0.74 | −0.73 | −0.64 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −0.74 | −0.99 | −0.85 | −0.68 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.74 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.82 | −0.62 | −0.85 | −0.72 | −0.40 | −0.35 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.07 | −0.91 | −0.84 | · | −0.41 | −0.87 | −0.35 | −0.70 | −0.90 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.59 | −0.25 | −0.25 | · | −0.58 | −0.55 | −0.58 | −0.56 | −0.85 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.48 | −0.44 | −0.60 | −0.73 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.70 | −0.19 | −0.27 | −0.30 | · | −0.60 | · | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.62 | · | −0.59 | −0.55 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.18 | · | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.59 | −0.48 | · | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.45 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.02 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.22 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Belgium is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +58.2 | 64.4 | 6.2 | 65 | 10 | Energy Technologies 11.4 · Transitional |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +56.0 | 57.4 | 1.4 | 65 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +38.1 | 42.1 | 4.0 | 71 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +37.1 | 45.0 | 7.9 | 72 | 12 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.8 · Established |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +29.2 | 44.0 | 14.7 | 62 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 11 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +14.7 | 32.9 | 18.2 | 74 | 26 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 14.3 · Established |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +9.3 | 14.4 | 5.1 | 68 | 31 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.6 · Established |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +8.3 | 16.1 | 7.8 | 72 | 87 | Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 71 | 90 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 13.3 · Established |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 72 | 139 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 13.5 · Established |