North Macedonia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years19.4rank 94 of 197 · 3 years: 20.2

Worst case−13.9%Energy supply shock · tail −12.9%

Opportunity · 10 years−1.6rank 92 of 197 · 3 years: −1.2

Best case+21Energy abundance · gainer in 3 of 10

Shock absorbed27%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.01expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; youth unemployment rate; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in North Macedonia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.92

Pandemic S14−0.89

AI diffusion shock S13−0.76

Global financial crisis S03−0.75

Chokepoint closure S05−0.74

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.72

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.66

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.55

Hybrid campaign S06−0.43

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.39

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.38

Disaster in the core S10−0.32

Mass displacement S08−0.28

Food and water shock S11−0.22

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.94	−0.92	−1.19	−0.53	0	25	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.80	−0.89	−1.21	−0.54	▼ 1	21	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.80	−0.76	−1.05	−0.47	0	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.73	−0.75	−1.08	−0.47	0	20	Economic Output & Productivity 5 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.83	−0.74	−0.96	−0.42	0	20	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.68	−0.72	−0.95	−0.42	▲ 3	19	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.65	−0.66	−0.88	−0.39	▼ 1	15	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.76	−0.55	−0.73	−0.33	0	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.53	−0.43	−0.57	−0.25	▼ 1	12	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.58	−0.39	−0.58	−0.26	▲ 1	10	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.8 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.38	−0.38	−0.54	−0.24	▲ 4	11	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.4 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.47	−0.32	−0.51	−0.22	▲ 4	14	Energy Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.51	−0.28	−0.45	−0.20	▲ 1	11	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.25	−0.22	−0.33	−0.14	▲ 5	9	Resource Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.12	−1.30	−0.43	−0.54	−0.54	−1.22	−1.45	−1.39	−1.24
Pandemic	−0.87	−0.48	−0.35	−1.17	−1.02	−1.09	−1.02	−1.00	−1.00
AI diffusion shock	−0.85	−0.43	−0.34	−1.14	−0.86	−1.18	−1.00	−0.55	−0.49
Global financial crisis	−0.37	−0.38	−0.30	−0.76	−0.76	−0.95	−1.26	−1.08	−0.87
Chokepoint closure	−0.10	−1.26	−0.87	·	−0.56	−1.21	−0.48	−0.97	−1.24
Infrastructure collapse	−0.80	−1.08	−0.35	−0.39	−0.39	−0.97	−0.90	−0.88	−0.77
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.75	−0.36	−0.29	·	−0.84	−0.81	−0.84	−0.83	−1.24
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.94	−0.30	−0.34	−0.47	·	−0.96	·	−0.97	−0.97
Hybrid campaign	−0.33	−0.72	−0.66	·	−0.80	−0.75	·	−0.30	−0.30
Legitimacy crisis	−0.29	·	−0.52	−0.29	−0.68	−0.94	−0.77	·	·
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.32	−0.16	−0.44	−0.40	−0.54	−0.66	−0.40	−0.45
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.67	−0.18	−0.50	−0.22	−0.56	−0.30	−0.22	−0.22
Mass displacement	·	−0.29	−0.19	−0.59	−0.48	−0.66	−0.28	−0.03	·
Food and water shock	−0.03	−0.26	−0.10	−0.31	−0.30	−0.32	−0.15	−0.26	−0.29

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what North Macedonia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+21.1

Middle East settlement S21+19.9

100-day pandemic defence S24+15.6

Great-power détente S18+2.0

Digital state leapfrog S23−2.0

Emerging-market breakout S20−4.7

Sovereign debt reset S19−4.9

Yield revolution S22−7.4

Superintelligence takeoff S15−19.5

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−21.4

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+21.1	21.4	0.3	21	52	Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+19.9	21.4	1.5	36	50	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+15.6	18.4	2.8	25	70	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+2.0	19.2	17.2	33	96	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−2.0	8.3	10.3	27	87	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	−4.7	10.8	15.6	38	178	Investment Attraction & Projection 6.7 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−4.9	5.5	10.4	46	184	Financial Regulation & Integrity 8.5 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−7.4	4.8	12.1	25	133	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−19.5	12.8	32.3	19	95	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−21.4	14.5	35.9	27	172	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception